Just to expand on the kicking game, as it will be vital to a team on the margins within the NFL.
The kickoffs will stress leg strength and skill with the distance being traded off for height and direction, which means a lot more work on each ball and (like golf) that means more can go wrong.
Add the n that we've got a new long snapper that is pretty average, thrm there's a lot hanging on a rookie kicker that looks average at best, so far.
I’d be stunned if they dont bring in other kickers at some point in camp. There’s no real rush because the issue of the McManus cut is that the other top available kickers had all being signed in free agency, so they might have to wait a while for other kicking battles to play out before they find there actual guy. But I’d be shocked if their current kicker goes unchallenged.
Amazing rundown on where the Commanders stand going into camp, MB! About the best I’ve read or heard during all the pre-camp breakdowns out there - and I’m not just blowing smoke. It’s true.
That said, I have a few questions to pepper you with throughout the comments section, kinda in the order you wrote about them. Here goes;
I’m wondering if having multiple personnel packages that come in & out depending on the game situation make a defense more predictable, as compared to having the pretty much the same 11 who are have the “position flex” to do different (sometimes unpredictable) things at the snap on any play?
Yes and no. In theory, you’re right in that if say, Percy Butler only comes on the field to play man coverage against a tight end, then that does make the defense more predictable. However, the flip side of that is when you have so many different packages and options available to you, it makes it harder to prepare for the whole thing because the opposing offense wont know exactly what is coming each week. You could prepare all week expecting Butler to come on the field to match your TE, only for the Commanders to never use that package and instead use a different package that plays zone, or has Chinn or Hampton covering the TE instead.
So being able to line up with the same 11 and run lots of different things is one philosophy, but having multiple different packages that a team will struggle to prepare for all of them is another. Neither is right or wrong, both have advantages and disadvantages.
I see what you mean. The best of both worlds is to have plenty of position flex among multiple personnel packages. Just because a certain player is on the field it does not mean he's going to do what film study predicts him to do. Makes all the sense in the world.
Here’s another that has been on my tiny mind lately. Many see Frankie Luvu becoming DW& JWJ’s version of Micah Parsons (“MP lite”?). Just what are some of the differences in what to expect from FL4 & MP 11? In which ways is Frankie not on the same level of Parsons?
Also, are there important areas in which Frankie surpasses Micah, & perhaps balances out any shortcomings?
Parsons is a FREAK. That guy can bend the edge amazingly well and pairs that with an outstanding burst, good power and violent hands that make him an incredibly well rounded rusher. Luvu has elements of those parts to his game, but not to the level that Parsons is at. Luvu has also played more frequently as a traditional off-ball linebacker whereas Parsons has been leaning more and more into this pass rush role that rarely plays like a normal linebacker.
So I think there will be packages in this defense that use Luvu as that roaming rusher that can line up and blitz from anywhere, including at DE. But I think we’ll also see times where Luvu is played as a more traditional Will linebacker, where Parsons wouldn’t do that so much because you want him rushing as much as possible.
Can he stuff the run in short-yardage plays - or is he off the field in those situations? Can he stay with an RB or TE in the rare situations in which a defense might want to cross up a QB. Or is all that just a waste of his talent?
But then who does the actual LB grunt work play to play if MP11's always rushing the passer? The word is that the Cowboys were deficient at traditional LB last season. Is that one of the reasons?
In his rookie year, he was kind of a hybrid guy. Spent a fair few snaps as a more traditional linebacker and then would shift to edge on third downs and obvious passing situations. But as his ability as a rusher began to shine, that’s the most valuable trait you can have, so the Cowboys would have been silly not to transition him into more of a pure pass rusher, just from different spots.
He does still occasionally line up and play more traditional linebacker roles. You mentioned the Cowboys struggling at LB last year and that was true, they really lacked depth at the position and it hurt them in the run game. Quinn and Whitt did what they could by shifting bigger safeties down, blitzing a ton and using stunts up front to be disruptive, but we saw the issue in the playoff game against the Packers where they just lacked linebackers that can stop the run effectively.
At times last year, when they faced good running offenses, Parsons would shift back into more of a linebacker and they’d play four defensive lineman in front of him and another LB alongside of him, because that gave them more sound run defense. But that is something that then takes away from the pass rush because Parsons is such a threat there. They can and did have him drop into coverage every now and then, and he’s fine in that role, but when you have one of the best pass rushers in the league, you want them going forward more often than not.
Hi Mark. Have you had a chance to look into what the new kickoff and coverage teams might look like? How they might impact the roster? I do agree that the kick returner will likely be a running back type, perhaps like Christian Gonzalez, though we don’t know if he can catch. Thanks.
That’s something I admittedly need to do a deeper dive into. There was a piece written by my friend Shawn Syed a week or two ago that I’ve had on my reading list but haven’t yet got round to. He went and studied 400+ XFL kickoffs to see how they went about things with this kickoff structure. So I’d read that piece for better insight than anything I can give at this moment in time. Here’s the link for that piece: https://sumersports.com/the-zone/the-new-nfl-kickoff-rule-xfl-kickoff-study/
I also liked that DQ shed a little light on the kind of kickoff returner you might possibly want this season.
He talked about maybe needing two true running back types to do the job, including both a "centerfield" type set back nearer to the goal line, and a "shortstop" playing up closer to the kickoff line. If so, those two roles might require specific body types and/or skill sets. No?
For sure. I think there are going to be a lot of experiments with it in preseason and we'll see a fair few different players and body types given a go back there. Could certainly open up a spot on the roster for a player that we aren't considering, maybe an extra running back. Maybe even Jeff Driskel, who was a running QB in college!
I didn’t see any mention of Sainistril. Is he a lock as the top nickel corner? Similar to Quan, is he unique or flexible to the point of influencing personnel packages and ultimately DB numbers that make the 53?
Yeah that nickel spot has kinda flown under the radar. I kinda just assume Sainristil will win the job, but they did sign James Pierre in free agency who is a similar type of nickel corner, so there will be some competition there. It’s clear that they loved Sainristil and while I think he still has plenty of growth needed (to be expected from a guy that was a WR 2 years ago), I think they believe in the talent and particularly the character to make it work. With the coaching staff they have on defense, I suspect he’ll do pretty well.
In light of his early struggles last season, I'm kind of amazed to see that many feel that Quan Martin has made a major transition from being a rookie who was then considered a liability - & maybe even a bust- to someone who many seem to be really banking on to be an impact player at DB this year.
Do you agree that he’s made a quantum leap (too strong?) ahead over the course of the season - & if so, why? And do you have an opinion as to what his best position will be?
I think the thing is more likely that he wasn't really considered a bust early in the season, they just had other players ahead of him. Kam Curl was a better big nickel and they wanted St-Juste to be the pure nickel in order to get all 3 of Fuller, Forbes and St-Juste on the field. They also had Forrest and Butler (along with Curl) at safety. That meant Martin was the odd man out because he wasn't beating Curl for the big nickel, St-Juste for the normal nickel or Forrest for the FS spot.
It's entirely true he could have taken a while to get up to speed with everything too because that defense was complex and we saw over the 4 years that it regularly took players extra time to get used to it (some never did). So trying to learn 3 different roles in a complex defense could have left him behind. By late in the season, however, he clearly had got up to speed and made some nice plays when he was out there, both at FS and at nickel.
So I don't think he's made some massive leap, I think he just ended up catching up a bit at the end of the year and got a few opportunities thanks to injuries that the staff hadn't afforded him otherwise.
I think in this defense, his best spot might well be free safety because he has the range and instincts for it. But I think if you just play him as a pure free safety that sits in the deep middle of the field all day, you're likely wasting some of his talent and versatility to line up in different spots. So I think they will try and make use of that versatility and move him around a little bit, but from a starting point of playing FS.
Yikes! I guess I mighta been a little harsh on ol' Quan then!
Glad to know that you will usually provide a lot more useful context than we get from most analysts. I definitely put you in the Logan Paulsen camp of very thoughtful analysis (which I hope you know is meant as a compliment).
I was disappointed to hear that Jer’zhan Newton’s foot injury will be holding him back in camp a little longer, leaving his growth & development in questions for the time being. I hope it's not something that at nags him and retards his acclimation to the NFL!
Now here's my question; Johnny's situation brings to mind that of Phil Mathis, whose own injuries have really held back his career. Have you been able to form a decent opinion on his abilities, or has his very limited playing time prevented you from doing that? If so, do you have any reason to believe that Big Phil might someday become a solid contributor in the NFL someday - even if not at a 2nd-round-pick level?
Well the good news on Newton is that he passed a physical today and has been activated, so he practiced today. I'm not too concerned about it either because he played half a season at a stupidly high level with the injury, so the guy is clearly tough and can play through pain to still be a very good player.
With Mathis - He was never really someone I thought was a great DL. I thought his ceiling was probably a run stuffing NT that could dominate the run on the interior. That does have value, but probably not second round value. He'd have to be someone like a Vince Wilfork or Haloti Ngata level to be worth that and while he was a stout run defender, he wasn't like them. I never really saw the pass rush upside that others saw with him. I think the most damning thing for him is that John Ridgeway, who was a 5th rounder in the same class, came in and had more of an impact that Mathis ever looked like having. He's been a really good run stuffer and offered more of a pass rush than Mathis too. Even when Mathis was healthy last year, Ridgeway never looked like losing his reps to him.
I think Mathis can probably make an NFL roster as a back up/rotational run stuffing NT, but Washington already have that role filled by Ridgeway. With the amount of other bodies they have on the DL that offer a lot more, I think Mathis' future may be elsewhere
Johnny's back on the roster already?! Great news! I totally missed that.
Sad to hear that Big Phil might very well be another squandered high draft pick during the Rivera Era. And now it looks like recent 3rd-round pick Ricky Stromberg & 4th-rounder Braeden Daniels might also become as useful to this roster as Krusty the Clown's superfluous third nipple!
Speaking of offensive lineman, Sam Cosmi has really risen in the eyes of most this off season (though I am still mystified by his weakness when it comes to his finishing off pulling blocks!!😅) into being considered an upper echelon RG.
You mention that he’s “arguably” deserving of a new contract. I’d be very interested to hear how deserving of a new contract Sam is (i.e., wait another season & see if he's for real; put out feelers in camp; or get it done NOW!), and in what price range he may fall into.
Or is a "price range" a moot point, and it's simply a matter that players of Sam's quality go right to the top of the pay scale when they sign a new deal?
I think he has the potential to become one of the better guards in football if he continues on his trend from last season, so I would have gotten out in front of the deal and tried to sign him this year. But I can also understand a new regime not feeling comfortable with doing that right away. They don’t know him personally yet, he’s only really had one year where he’s been healthy and productive, and they haven’t seen him in this system yet. One of the few issues I have with Cosmi’s game is his blocking when pulling. That should be a relatively simple fix for a guy as talented as him, but this is a system that will likely ask guards to pull a fair bit, so if Cosmi can’t fix that issue then I can see why they might have doubts about a long term fit.
I do kinda think with their personnel they might be better off running zone. Biadasz is an excellent zone blocking center, Cosmi is fantastic with the zone scheme at guard, Wylie is a damn good zone blocker too at both LG and RT. But Kingsbury and Bobby Johnson both majored in gap scheme stuff in previous stops so I’m not sure how much zone we’ll see from them (probably plenty of inside zone still, but not necessarily a ton of wide zone).
Ultimately he’s a very talented guard that I would want to be building around, but I get why they aren’t in a hurry right now. Plus they still have a ton of cap space, so it’s not like it’s the end of the world if they have to pay him a little bit extra next offseason instead. The other upside of waiting is that he’s currently 25. If you give him a 4/5 year deal now, that takes him to 29/30 when you’d then need to make a tough decision to either pay him again as he’s entering the 30s and risk him falling off, or let him walk and he ends up maintaining his level of play for another 3-4 years. If you wait until next offseason, he’ll be 26, you’ll have gotten him at a much cheaper rate this season on his rookie deal and then the new contract kicks in that will take him to 30/31 when that decision to potentially move on would be easier to make.
Just to expand on the kicking game, as it will be vital to a team on the margins within the NFL.
The kickoffs will stress leg strength and skill with the distance being traded off for height and direction, which means a lot more work on each ball and (like golf) that means more can go wrong.
Add the n that we've got a new long snapper that is pretty average, thrm there's a lot hanging on a rookie kicker that looks average at best, so far.
I’d be stunned if they dont bring in other kickers at some point in camp. There’s no real rush because the issue of the McManus cut is that the other top available kickers had all being signed in free agency, so they might have to wait a while for other kicking battles to play out before they find there actual guy. But I’d be shocked if their current kicker goes unchallenged.
Amazing rundown on where the Commanders stand going into camp, MB! About the best I’ve read or heard during all the pre-camp breakdowns out there - and I’m not just blowing smoke. It’s true.
That said, I have a few questions to pepper you with throughout the comments section, kinda in the order you wrote about them. Here goes;
I’m wondering if having multiple personnel packages that come in & out depending on the game situation make a defense more predictable, as compared to having the pretty much the same 11 who are have the “position flex” to do different (sometimes unpredictable) things at the snap on any play?
Yes and no. In theory, you’re right in that if say, Percy Butler only comes on the field to play man coverage against a tight end, then that does make the defense more predictable. However, the flip side of that is when you have so many different packages and options available to you, it makes it harder to prepare for the whole thing because the opposing offense wont know exactly what is coming each week. You could prepare all week expecting Butler to come on the field to match your TE, only for the Commanders to never use that package and instead use a different package that plays zone, or has Chinn or Hampton covering the TE instead.
So being able to line up with the same 11 and run lots of different things is one philosophy, but having multiple different packages that a team will struggle to prepare for all of them is another. Neither is right or wrong, both have advantages and disadvantages.
I see what you mean. The best of both worlds is to have plenty of position flex among multiple personnel packages. Just because a certain player is on the field it does not mean he's going to do what film study predicts him to do. Makes all the sense in the world.
Precisely.
Here’s another that has been on my tiny mind lately. Many see Frankie Luvu becoming DW& JWJ’s version of Micah Parsons (“MP lite”?). Just what are some of the differences in what to expect from FL4 & MP 11? In which ways is Frankie not on the same level of Parsons?
Also, are there important areas in which Frankie surpasses Micah, & perhaps balances out any shortcomings?
Parsons is a FREAK. That guy can bend the edge amazingly well and pairs that with an outstanding burst, good power and violent hands that make him an incredibly well rounded rusher. Luvu has elements of those parts to his game, but not to the level that Parsons is at. Luvu has also played more frequently as a traditional off-ball linebacker whereas Parsons has been leaning more and more into this pass rush role that rarely plays like a normal linebacker.
So I think there will be packages in this defense that use Luvu as that roaming rusher that can line up and blitz from anywhere, including at DE. But I think we’ll also see times where Luvu is played as a more traditional Will linebacker, where Parsons wouldn’t do that so much because you want him rushing as much as possible.
Thanks for that reply, MB.
So is Parson's actually a "linebacker" at all?
Can he stuff the run in short-yardage plays - or is he off the field in those situations? Can he stay with an RB or TE in the rare situations in which a defense might want to cross up a QB. Or is all that just a waste of his talent?
But then who does the actual LB grunt work play to play if MP11's always rushing the passer? The word is that the Cowboys were deficient at traditional LB last season. Is that one of the reasons?
In his rookie year, he was kind of a hybrid guy. Spent a fair few snaps as a more traditional linebacker and then would shift to edge on third downs and obvious passing situations. But as his ability as a rusher began to shine, that’s the most valuable trait you can have, so the Cowboys would have been silly not to transition him into more of a pure pass rusher, just from different spots.
He does still occasionally line up and play more traditional linebacker roles. You mentioned the Cowboys struggling at LB last year and that was true, they really lacked depth at the position and it hurt them in the run game. Quinn and Whitt did what they could by shifting bigger safeties down, blitzing a ton and using stunts up front to be disruptive, but we saw the issue in the playoff game against the Packers where they just lacked linebackers that can stop the run effectively.
At times last year, when they faced good running offenses, Parsons would shift back into more of a linebacker and they’d play four defensive lineman in front of him and another LB alongside of him, because that gave them more sound run defense. But that is something that then takes away from the pass rush because Parsons is such a threat there. They can and did have him drop into coverage every now and then, and he’s fine in that role, but when you have one of the best pass rushers in the league, you want them going forward more often than not.
Hi Mark. Have you had a chance to look into what the new kickoff and coverage teams might look like? How they might impact the roster? I do agree that the kick returner will likely be a running back type, perhaps like Christian Gonzalez, though we don’t know if he can catch. Thanks.
That’s something I admittedly need to do a deeper dive into. There was a piece written by my friend Shawn Syed a week or two ago that I’ve had on my reading list but haven’t yet got round to. He went and studied 400+ XFL kickoffs to see how they went about things with this kickoff structure. So I’d read that piece for better insight than anything I can give at this moment in time. Here’s the link for that piece: https://sumersports.com/the-zone/the-new-nfl-kickoff-rule-xfl-kickoff-study/
Thanks, Mark!
I also liked that DQ shed a little light on the kind of kickoff returner you might possibly want this season.
He talked about maybe needing two true running back types to do the job, including both a "centerfield" type set back nearer to the goal line, and a "shortstop" playing up closer to the kickoff line. If so, those two roles might require specific body types and/or skill sets. No?
For sure. I think there are going to be a lot of experiments with it in preseason and we'll see a fair few different players and body types given a go back there. Could certainly open up a spot on the roster for a player that we aren't considering, maybe an extra running back. Maybe even Jeff Driskel, who was a running QB in college!
I didn’t see any mention of Sainistril. Is he a lock as the top nickel corner? Similar to Quan, is he unique or flexible to the point of influencing personnel packages and ultimately DB numbers that make the 53?
Yeah that nickel spot has kinda flown under the radar. I kinda just assume Sainristil will win the job, but they did sign James Pierre in free agency who is a similar type of nickel corner, so there will be some competition there. It’s clear that they loved Sainristil and while I think he still has plenty of growth needed (to be expected from a guy that was a WR 2 years ago), I think they believe in the talent and particularly the character to make it work. With the coaching staff they have on defense, I suspect he’ll do pretty well.
In light of his early struggles last season, I'm kind of amazed to see that many feel that Quan Martin has made a major transition from being a rookie who was then considered a liability - & maybe even a bust- to someone who many seem to be really banking on to be an impact player at DB this year.
Do you agree that he’s made a quantum leap (too strong?) ahead over the course of the season - & if so, why? And do you have an opinion as to what his best position will be?
I think the thing is more likely that he wasn't really considered a bust early in the season, they just had other players ahead of him. Kam Curl was a better big nickel and they wanted St-Juste to be the pure nickel in order to get all 3 of Fuller, Forbes and St-Juste on the field. They also had Forrest and Butler (along with Curl) at safety. That meant Martin was the odd man out because he wasn't beating Curl for the big nickel, St-Juste for the normal nickel or Forrest for the FS spot.
It's entirely true he could have taken a while to get up to speed with everything too because that defense was complex and we saw over the 4 years that it regularly took players extra time to get used to it (some never did). So trying to learn 3 different roles in a complex defense could have left him behind. By late in the season, however, he clearly had got up to speed and made some nice plays when he was out there, both at FS and at nickel.
So I don't think he's made some massive leap, I think he just ended up catching up a bit at the end of the year and got a few opportunities thanks to injuries that the staff hadn't afforded him otherwise.
I think in this defense, his best spot might well be free safety because he has the range and instincts for it. But I think if you just play him as a pure free safety that sits in the deep middle of the field all day, you're likely wasting some of his talent and versatility to line up in different spots. So I think they will try and make use of that versatility and move him around a little bit, but from a starting point of playing FS.
Yikes! I guess I mighta been a little harsh on ol' Quan then!
Glad to know that you will usually provide a lot more useful context than we get from most analysts. I definitely put you in the Logan Paulsen camp of very thoughtful analysis (which I hope you know is meant as a compliment).
I was disappointed to hear that Jer’zhan Newton’s foot injury will be holding him back in camp a little longer, leaving his growth & development in questions for the time being. I hope it's not something that at nags him and retards his acclimation to the NFL!
Now here's my question; Johnny's situation brings to mind that of Phil Mathis, whose own injuries have really held back his career. Have you been able to form a decent opinion on his abilities, or has his very limited playing time prevented you from doing that? If so, do you have any reason to believe that Big Phil might someday become a solid contributor in the NFL someday - even if not at a 2nd-round-pick level?
(I told you a had a few questions for you!😜 You provided a lot of grist for the mill.)
Always welcome to ask as many questions as you like
Well the good news on Newton is that he passed a physical today and has been activated, so he practiced today. I'm not too concerned about it either because he played half a season at a stupidly high level with the injury, so the guy is clearly tough and can play through pain to still be a very good player.
With Mathis - He was never really someone I thought was a great DL. I thought his ceiling was probably a run stuffing NT that could dominate the run on the interior. That does have value, but probably not second round value. He'd have to be someone like a Vince Wilfork or Haloti Ngata level to be worth that and while he was a stout run defender, he wasn't like them. I never really saw the pass rush upside that others saw with him. I think the most damning thing for him is that John Ridgeway, who was a 5th rounder in the same class, came in and had more of an impact that Mathis ever looked like having. He's been a really good run stuffer and offered more of a pass rush than Mathis too. Even when Mathis was healthy last year, Ridgeway never looked like losing his reps to him.
I think Mathis can probably make an NFL roster as a back up/rotational run stuffing NT, but Washington already have that role filled by Ridgeway. With the amount of other bodies they have on the DL that offer a lot more, I think Mathis' future may be elsewhere
Johnny's back on the roster already?! Great news! I totally missed that.
Sad to hear that Big Phil might very well be another squandered high draft pick during the Rivera Era. And now it looks like recent 3rd-round pick Ricky Stromberg & 4th-rounder Braeden Daniels might also become as useful to this roster as Krusty the Clown's superfluous third nipple!
Speaking of offensive lineman, Sam Cosmi has really risen in the eyes of most this off season (though I am still mystified by his weakness when it comes to his finishing off pulling blocks!!😅) into being considered an upper echelon RG.
You mention that he’s “arguably” deserving of a new contract. I’d be very interested to hear how deserving of a new contract Sam is (i.e., wait another season & see if he's for real; put out feelers in camp; or get it done NOW!), and in what price range he may fall into.
Or is a "price range" a moot point, and it's simply a matter that players of Sam's quality go right to the top of the pay scale when they sign a new deal?
Thanks for all the great answers today.
Cheers!
I think he has the potential to become one of the better guards in football if he continues on his trend from last season, so I would have gotten out in front of the deal and tried to sign him this year. But I can also understand a new regime not feeling comfortable with doing that right away. They don’t know him personally yet, he’s only really had one year where he’s been healthy and productive, and they haven’t seen him in this system yet. One of the few issues I have with Cosmi’s game is his blocking when pulling. That should be a relatively simple fix for a guy as talented as him, but this is a system that will likely ask guards to pull a fair bit, so if Cosmi can’t fix that issue then I can see why they might have doubts about a long term fit.
I do kinda think with their personnel they might be better off running zone. Biadasz is an excellent zone blocking center, Cosmi is fantastic with the zone scheme at guard, Wylie is a damn good zone blocker too at both LG and RT. But Kingsbury and Bobby Johnson both majored in gap scheme stuff in previous stops so I’m not sure how much zone we’ll see from them (probably plenty of inside zone still, but not necessarily a ton of wide zone).
Ultimately he’s a very talented guard that I would want to be building around, but I get why they aren’t in a hurry right now. Plus they still have a ton of cap space, so it’s not like it’s the end of the world if they have to pay him a little bit extra next offseason instead. The other upside of waiting is that he’s currently 25. If you give him a 4/5 year deal now, that takes him to 29/30 when you’d then need to make a tough decision to either pay him again as he’s entering the 30s and risk him falling off, or let him walk and he ends up maintaining his level of play for another 3-4 years. If you wait until next offseason, he’ll be 26, you’ll have gotten him at a much cheaper rate this season on his rookie deal and then the new contract kicks in that will take him to 30/31 when that decision to potentially move on would be easier to make.