Was planning to save this for Monday morning, but lots of moves are already happening and there's every chance this is out of date by then, so figured I'd just put it out now and free up Monday/Tuesday to react to whatever happens. Enjoy!
I suspect I’ll be off by 2 or 3 at least. There’s usually some sort of injury we don’t know about where a player gets kept and then put on IR or starts the season on PUP etc. And I think it will probably change between Tuesday and say Friday. I bet they’ll be looking at any WRs that might be available, like Noah Brown last year, possibly looking at a few other spots too. I also wouldn’t rule out another Adam Peters trade. As a complete hypothetical, if they feel Yankoff and Turner/Cager has had a better camp than Sinnott and someone else is willing to offer a good trade for Sinnott, then perhaps he could trade Sinnott and keep the other TEs if he feels they’ve been on similar levels. (I don’t anticipate them moving on from Sinnott specifically, that’s just an example)
I'm actually super concerned about the WR group. How confident are we that Noah and Deebo are going to be available consistently? I think your analysis is solid.
I’m not too concerned about Deebo. He only missed significant time back in 2020 when he only played 7 games. In 2021 he played 16 games, 2022 was 13, 2023 and 2024 were both 15 games. So he’s been reasonably reliable and by all accounts, is in great shape this year with a big incentive to earn one more big contract next offseason. So based on his history he might miss a couple of games but should be there for most of them, hopefully that is the case this year too.
Noah Brown is the big question. He’s only been a higher volume target for 3 years. He played 16 games for Dallas in 2022, but then just 10 for the Texans in 2023 and 11 for Washington last year. Injuries have seemed to follow him around. So that is definitely a concern and they will need to be prepared for if he does miss time because history suggests he will.
Yeah, definitely very physical after the catch, which is why he has missed a game or two a year for the most part. But has largely avoided major injuries so far in his career, which hopefully continues.
Lotta speculation about the numbers right now. Heard different reporters say "up to", "at least" and "worth" $96 million. All have that number but of course, we know NFL contracts are all about the guaranteed money and cap hits. We'll have to wait and see on that. I think Ben Standig reported 30m signing bonus though.
Well, now that Terry’s signed I think we have a pretty good to very good receiver group! My guess much of the last year isn’t guaranteed, and in reality it’ll be something like two years and $55m fully guaranteed.
$55M seems like a very generous offer by the team (even though I'd been repping 60😁) Wonder who hadda move farther? Not that I care to parse winners & losers in this deal, though I’m sure many will
Looks like an extension, not a re-do. That means they expect Terry to produce for another three seasons if he is going to be a good value. The 2027 might be a tad dicey, imho!😰
Now a lotta fans can get their knickers out of a self-inflicted a twist!😅
I think that would genuinely be insightful Mark. I have him tabbed as a fringe Top
10 (based on eyes, analytics and reading experts like yourself) who’s likely to be overtaken by some whilst maybe upping his own game thanks to quality QB play for the second/third year of his career and his experience.
I’m always especially fascinated by how double coverage seems to nullify him, and whether that demonstrates that he’s some way below Chase/Jefferson or just our number twos and threes have been far below theirs?
Another outstanding Sunday post that I whiffed on! And with me being stuck in effin CHURCH all day!! (Yeah…sure.😜)
Well, it’s a good way to start a gloomy Monday anyway. But today is also a quasi-holiday for me; the 1st day of school in my area! After spending most all my life dreading this day, I have spent the last 14 years of retirement CELEBRATING it!!🥳 (I'm sure you all felt that you needed to hear THAT story🥵)
That silliness dispensed with, I’ll start by remarking that I can't believe the love I'm hearing for Josh Johnson in some quarters (I.e., WaPo comments section). Please never let JJ see the field wearing B& G ever again!
I agree with ya that 5 WRs might be enough (unless a serviceable cut falls to the Comms’ 29th pick on the waiver wire!). The receiving shortfall can be made up with that 4th TE that you’re advocating for. No? Not the same?
Also, while I ❤️ most of them, I’m still skeptical of those last 3 depth pieces on the OL. I’m from Missouri (not really), so SHOW ME that they will not be a deficit! And I totally agree about Trent Scott, MB; I ain't seeing it!
When it comes to the DL, I've gotta queasy feeling about some of those backups, too! (Guess I gotta backup phobia)In the preseason games, the oppo seemed to run through a lot of them a hot knife thru butter. But maybe none of that counts? (Btw, let me whisper to ya the secret name regarding stealth pass rush contributors; Jake Martin.🤫) Oops, did I just say that out loud?!
And re; Kaho (NOT Kahlo, as I’d been saying😖) I’ve always liked him, but I’m glad you mentioned that he stunk up the joint in New England. Really encouraged that he’s improving - but after all fair IS fair! If he makes the Final 53, I’ll plotz!
In the defensive backfield, I like the top guys, but I’m always wary about playing ST aces Igby, Percy, & Owens too much from scrimmage - at least until they make Reevo-level improvements in their DB skills.
And the less said about Matt Gay, the better. Field goal attempts over 50 yards are an extremely common occurrence in the NFL, but Matt only attempted 9 last year - and was successful on but THREE!😱Someone claimed to me that he used to be a prolific long kicker. HUH?! I wonder when that changed?
Once again, MB, thanks for giving me a chance to ramble!🙏 My wife doesn’t want to hear it.
Agree on the DL depth, at least on the interior. Payne will be Payne, but there's unknowns on Kinlaw and Newton. Goldman didn't exactly blow anyone away and I could easily see Davis or Day beat him out, but neither of them were particularly great in preseason either. If Kinlaw is more consistent and Newton takes a step forward, it's suddenly a very good group. If only one of those things happens, it's a top heavy group. If neither happens, it's in trouble.
I think Noah Igbinoghene could hold up pretty well when called upon, but hopefully won't be needed. Owens is the interesting one of that group because they seemed to use him in a lot of different spots to test him, but I'm not sure he stood out particularly for me in any of the preseason games. I'll perhaps go back and watch with a focus purely on him though.
The kicker situation is a concern too, for sure. They put all their eggs in that basket the moment he came free. Early indications suggest that was a mistake. Will be interesting to see if they pivot if a kicker they like becomes available this week
I don't think Kaho was stinking anything up versus that Pats. A few solid plays, maybe 1 or 2 reps were a wash, but nothing terrible. Can't say the same for most his teammates that day...
“Stinking the joint up” may have been a tad over the top, none (and very unlike me!🤣) but I did see him running around like the proverbial headless chicken inthat game as well being admonished by Igby for effing something up, but I did not break him down, MB-style. So I mighta harshed him. (Ironically enough, I saw HIM admonish a DB for a missed assignment vs BAL! Quick learner!😄)
That said, I've always been a big fan of Alè (even tho I kept calling him “Kahlo”😖), inexplicably feeling sorry that he was the only one of four star UCLA LBs not to get drafted. When I saw the BNG signed him as a UDFA I was chuffed! But I NEVER thought he'd make the final 53. Good for him!
Was planning to save this for Monday morning, but lots of moves are already happening and there's every chance this is out of date by then, so figured I'd just put it out now and free up Monday/Tuesday to react to whatever happens. Enjoy!
I think you are spot on! I would be surprised if you miss the 53-man roster by more than one player.
I suspect I’ll be off by 2 or 3 at least. There’s usually some sort of injury we don’t know about where a player gets kept and then put on IR or starts the season on PUP etc. And I think it will probably change between Tuesday and say Friday. I bet they’ll be looking at any WRs that might be available, like Noah Brown last year, possibly looking at a few other spots too. I also wouldn’t rule out another Adam Peters trade. As a complete hypothetical, if they feel Yankoff and Turner/Cager has had a better camp than Sinnott and someone else is willing to offer a good trade for Sinnott, then perhaps he could trade Sinnott and keep the other TEs if he feels they’ve been on similar levels. (I don’t anticipate them moving on from Sinnott specifically, that’s just an example)
Thanks for that caveat about Ben! I'd hate to think one of their first 2nd round picks ended up being expendable so soon.
And NOW we play the waiting game………..ahhh, the waiting game sucks! Let's play Hungry Hungry Hippos.
(Homer in “Mr. Plow”)
I'm actually super concerned about the WR group. How confident are we that Noah and Deebo are going to be available consistently? I think your analysis is solid.
I’m not too concerned about Deebo. He only missed significant time back in 2020 when he only played 7 games. In 2021 he played 16 games, 2022 was 13, 2023 and 2024 were both 15 games. So he’s been reasonably reliable and by all accounts, is in great shape this year with a big incentive to earn one more big contract next offseason. So based on his history he might miss a couple of games but should be there for most of them, hopefully that is the case this year too.
Noah Brown is the big question. He’s only been a higher volume target for 3 years. He played 16 games for Dallas in 2022, but then just 10 for the Texans in 2023 and 11 for Washington last year. Injuries have seemed to follow him around. So that is definitely a concern and they will need to be prepared for if he does miss time because history suggests he will.
That's fair. Deebo is such a violent runner though. Reminds me of Garcon in that way. Trusting in Cliff to make this group thrive!
Yeah, definitely very physical after the catch, which is why he has missed a game or two a year for the most part. But has largely avoided major injuries so far in his career, which hopefully continues.
I just saw Terry got the bag! Can't wait to hear contract details. This is good news!
Lotta speculation about the numbers right now. Heard different reporters say "up to", "at least" and "worth" $96 million. All have that number but of course, we know NFL contracts are all about the guaranteed money and cap hits. We'll have to wait and see on that. I think Ben Standig reported 30m signing bonus though.
Can't wait to hear the final numbers. As long as both sides are happy and we can get back to talking football.... I'm good lol.
Well, now that Terry’s signed I think we have a pretty good to very good receiver group! My guess much of the last year isn’t guaranteed, and in reality it’ll be something like two years and $55m fully guaranteed.
https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1960003326801564080
Took longer than it should, but goot to get a deal done! Do we want a "why the Commanders signed Terry McLaurin to an extention" post?
$55M seems like a very generous offer by the team (even though I'd been repping 60😁) Wonder who hadda move farther? Not that I care to parse winners & losers in this deal, though I’m sure many will
Looks like an extension, not a re-do. That means they expect Terry to produce for another three seasons if he is going to be a good value. The 2027 might be a tad dicey, imho!😰
Now a lotta fans can get their knickers out of a self-inflicted a twist!😅
I think that would genuinely be insightful Mark. I have him tabbed as a fringe Top
10 (based on eyes, analytics and reading experts like yourself) who’s likely to be overtaken by some whilst maybe upping his own game thanks to quality QB play for the second/third year of his career and his experience.
I’m always especially fascinated by how double coverage seems to nullify him, and whether that demonstrates that he’s some way below Chase/Jefferson or just our number twos and threes have been far below theirs?
You mean like Terry McLaurin’s Hit Parade??
If so, that would not be hard to look at!
Another outstanding Sunday post that I whiffed on! And with me being stuck in effin CHURCH all day!! (Yeah…sure.😜)
Well, it’s a good way to start a gloomy Monday anyway. But today is also a quasi-holiday for me; the 1st day of school in my area! After spending most all my life dreading this day, I have spent the last 14 years of retirement CELEBRATING it!!🥳 (I'm sure you all felt that you needed to hear THAT story🥵)
That silliness dispensed with, I’ll start by remarking that I can't believe the love I'm hearing for Josh Johnson in some quarters (I.e., WaPo comments section). Please never let JJ see the field wearing B& G ever again!
I agree with ya that 5 WRs might be enough (unless a serviceable cut falls to the Comms’ 29th pick on the waiver wire!). The receiving shortfall can be made up with that 4th TE that you’re advocating for. No? Not the same?
Also, while I ❤️ most of them, I’m still skeptical of those last 3 depth pieces on the OL. I’m from Missouri (not really), so SHOW ME that they will not be a deficit! And I totally agree about Trent Scott, MB; I ain't seeing it!
When it comes to the DL, I've gotta queasy feeling about some of those backups, too! (Guess I gotta backup phobia)In the preseason games, the oppo seemed to run through a lot of them a hot knife thru butter. But maybe none of that counts? (Btw, let me whisper to ya the secret name regarding stealth pass rush contributors; Jake Martin.🤫) Oops, did I just say that out loud?!
And re; Kaho (NOT Kahlo, as I’d been saying😖) I’ve always liked him, but I’m glad you mentioned that he stunk up the joint in New England. Really encouraged that he’s improving - but after all fair IS fair! If he makes the Final 53, I’ll plotz!
In the defensive backfield, I like the top guys, but I’m always wary about playing ST aces Igby, Percy, & Owens too much from scrimmage - at least until they make Reevo-level improvements in their DB skills.
And the less said about Matt Gay, the better. Field goal attempts over 50 yards are an extremely common occurrence in the NFL, but Matt only attempted 9 last year - and was successful on but THREE!😱Someone claimed to me that he used to be a prolific long kicker. HUH?! I wonder when that changed?
Once again, MB, thanks for giving me a chance to ramble!🙏 My wife doesn’t want to hear it.
Cheers!
Agree on the DL depth, at least on the interior. Payne will be Payne, but there's unknowns on Kinlaw and Newton. Goldman didn't exactly blow anyone away and I could easily see Davis or Day beat him out, but neither of them were particularly great in preseason either. If Kinlaw is more consistent and Newton takes a step forward, it's suddenly a very good group. If only one of those things happens, it's a top heavy group. If neither happens, it's in trouble.
I think Noah Igbinoghene could hold up pretty well when called upon, but hopefully won't be needed. Owens is the interesting one of that group because they seemed to use him in a lot of different spots to test him, but I'm not sure he stood out particularly for me in any of the preseason games. I'll perhaps go back and watch with a focus purely on him though.
The kicker situation is a concern too, for sure. They put all their eggs in that basket the moment he came free. Early indications suggest that was a mistake. Will be interesting to see if they pivot if a kicker they like becomes available this week
I don't think Kaho was stinking anything up versus that Pats. A few solid plays, maybe 1 or 2 reps were a wash, but nothing terrible. Can't say the same for most his teammates that day...
“Stinking the joint up” may have been a tad over the top, none (and very unlike me!🤣) but I did see him running around like the proverbial headless chicken inthat game as well being admonished by Igby for effing something up, but I did not break him down, MB-style. So I mighta harshed him. (Ironically enough, I saw HIM admonish a DB for a missed assignment vs BAL! Quick learner!😄)
That said, I've always been a big fan of Alè (even tho I kept calling him “Kahlo”😖), inexplicably feeling sorry that he was the only one of four star UCLA LBs not to get drafted. When I saw the BNG signed him as a UDFA I was chuffed! But I NEVER thought he'd make the final 53. Good for him!