Quarterback Evaluation: Matthew Stafford

What could the Lions' QB bring to a new team this offseason?

Matthew Stafford has long been considered one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL and, at least statistically, he’s certainly one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league since he was drafted. He’s been in Detroit for 12 years, but with the Lions starting from scratch yet again this offseason with changes at General Manager and Head Coach, it appears as though both sides have agreed to part ways. Stafford would be one of the top quarterbacks on the market, which means demand will be high, but what will he bring to any team looking to trade for him? Let’s take a closer look.

The arm

We might as well start with the most obvious trait. Stafford has the arm strength to rival that of anyone in the league. In terms of important traits for quarterbacks, arm strength is often overvalued and can cause teams to fall in love with the potential of said arm strength, rather than how effectively it’s used. Things like accuracy, reading coverages, poise within the pocket and ability to work off-script when plays break down are all more important than arm strength alone. However, when those traits are accounted for, arm strength can be the difference between a good quarterback and a great one. 

Stafford’s arm allows him to drive the ball down the field and create explosive plays. In the modern NFL, it’s difficult to put together consistently long drives without having negative plays that take the offense off the field. Washington had an issue with that this season, for example, when Alex Smith and co. struggled to find receivers down the field. The ability, therefore, for Stafford to hit on those deeper throws and pick up significant chunks of yards is huge for offensive production.

These are just a few of the numerous examples of Stafford’s ability to hit the deep ball. On the first play, Stafford delivers a beautiful throw on a deep corner route to wide receiver Marvin Jones for a 43-yard touchdown. Then we see an incredible throw that shows off just how strong Stafford’s arm is. After the pocket begins to collapse, Stafford steps up and throws the ball down the field for a huge gain of 70+ yards. Often those types of huge plays see the quarterback hit a throw of 30-40 yards, but Stafford’s throw traveled 60 yards in the air, which is incredible.

After that, we see Stafford almost throwing over the top of what is meant to be a prevent defense from Washington. With almost no time left in the game, Stafford spots a coverage bust down the field and pulls the trigger, only for his receiver to lose track of the ball in the air. The throw was still on the money, and Stafford ended up winning the game anyway, but it was still a great throw. The final play of the clip shows the Lions running a four verticals scheme against the Bears. Stafford feels pressure off his right side, causing him to step up before he pulls the trigger on a deep shot. He throws a perfect pass that he drops over the shoulder of the defender and into the arms of his receiver for a touchdown.

Stafford’s arm strength isn’t just limited to deep throws either. He can use it to drive throws into tight windows on more intermediate passes that other quarterbacks might not be able to hit. 

These clips show how Stafford can drive the ball into tight windows. The first play of the clip is an excellent example. Stafford initially looks right to his tight end running the corner route, but quickly works back to his left to find his receiver from the slot working up the seam. Most quarterbacks would have to put a lot of air under this pass and throw it well out in front of the receiver, hoping he can run underneath it. But on this occasion, the defensive back does a solid job of turning to recover and could have potentially made a play on the ball had it been thrown deeper with more loft. So instead, Stafford drives the throw, almost on a rope, to his receiver. The end zone replay angle shows this best. He not only drives the throw with great velocity, but his placement is superb and he hits the hands of his target while keeping the ball just out of reach of the trailing defender.

The second play of the clip comes against the Colts, with a corner-stop route to the right and a deep dig from the back side. Stafford looks to his right initially, but doesn’t like what he sees. He flips his head back to the dig from the other side and drives the ball into a small window between two underneath defenders and with enough velocity to get it to his receiver before the deeper safety can drive down on it. The third play shows Stafford’s ability to drive the ball with power outside the numbers on a deep out route, while the fourth and fifth plays are similar high-low concepts, with an inside receiver sitting underneath while the outside receiver wraps around behind them. On both occasions, Stafford is able to drive the ball into small windows to the deeper target. The end zone replay angle of the fifth throw shows just how tight the windows can be sometimes, but Stafford still manages to hit them.

Stafford isn’t flawless with this arm strength. Often quarterbacks with big arms have two main issues. The first is that they can be late on rhythm and timing throws like curls and comebacks because they’ve always had enough arm strength to make up for it. I didn’t see that as an issue for Stafford, especially with as much experience as he has. The second issue, which is one Stafford does struggle with from time to time, is trusting the arm too much while trying to throw the ball into windows that just aren’t open.

The first play of this clip comes against the Packers. Stafford looks to hit a deep over route from the slot receiver to the right. However, the Packers sink into a Cover-2 look and the slot receiver never clears the underneath zone defenders. Stafford attempts to drive the ball into an incredibly tight window between two defenders, but the defenders close on the ball and break up the pass. Ultimately, Stafford was fortunate not to be intercepted. 

Against the Vikings, with the second play of the clip, he wasn’t so lucky. The Lions attempt a stick-nod concept in the red zone, with the tight end faking a stick route before breaking back up the field behind the defense. The tight end never really wins the matchup, with the defender maintaining inside leverage as the tight end turns up the field, but Stafford attempts to hit his tight end anyway. His throw has plenty Of velocity, but ends up hitting the linebacker straight in the chest and he comes away with the interception.

Overall though, Stafford’s arm strength adds far more to his game than it hinders. While he can occasionally get carried away with trying to make certain throws because he has the arm to do so, he’s become less reckless as he’s aged. In general, his arm strength sets him apart from other quarterbacks for his ability to hit on deep shots and create explosive plays, as well as being able to fit the ball into tight windows. His placement on throws is typically good and often very good, especially on those intermediate to deep throws.

The first play of this clip shows Stafford with perfect placement on a touchdown throw against the Vikings. The Lions call for a post-wheel concept from a tight formation, with the wide receivers running seam-post routes while the tight ends loop around them on wheel routes. Stafford spots a single-deep safety look pre-snap and reads that safety after the snap. The Vikings drop into what appears to be a Cover-3 look and Stafford knows if he can hold the safety, he can hit his post route to the left. Stafford looks to his right to hold the safety before quickly whipping his head and feet back around to his left to deliver the throw. We see the arm strength again as he drives the ball down the field but the placement is perfect, hitting his receiver in stride for a simple touchdown.

After that, we see Stafford hit a nice over route against the Colts for a touchdown before a deeper over route on the third play of the clip. On that throw, Stafford had to step up in the pocket to avoid pressure before getting back on track and hitting his receiver in stride between two underneath zone defenders. The next play shows Stafford having the awareness in the red zone to place his throw low and away from the incoming defender, while the last play of the clip is an example of Stafford’s arm and placement at its best. The Lions call for a fake rub-concept, with the receivers running towards each other before sharply breaking off back towards the direction they came from. The Colts’ defenders cover the routes well, but Stafford makes the coverage irrelevant. He throws with power, but also deliberately places the ball higher to his receiver with a height advantage. The defender does a great job trying to contest the catch, but the throw is perfect and Stafford is rewarded with a touchdown.

Experienced mind

Quarterback’s typically get better with age because age brings experience. After a certain point, it’s tough for defensive coordinators to come up with something completely new for veteran quarterbacks to handle. After 12 years in the league, Stafford has seen a wide variety of blitzes and coverage schemes and knows how to deal with them. Even when defenses manage to trick him with a pre-snap look, he can still shred them post-snap.

On this play, Washington shows a heavy blitz look off the right side of the offensive line. Stafford fakes a snap to see if any defenders will give away a hint of which defenders are rushing and which are dropping into coverage. After the fake snap, he signals for his tight end to motion into the core of the formation and stay in to help block, indicating Stafford is anticipating a blitz from Washington and the offensive line would need another body to help pick it up. He then makes a signal to his two remaining receivers to his left, letting them know what routes he wants them to run now without the tight end as part of the route concept.

After the ball is snapped, Stafford realizes that Washington isn’t actually blitzing and instead are rushing just the front four defensive lineman. The rest of the defenders drop into what’s known as “Inverted Tampa-2”. Inverted Tampa-2 is essentially the same as normal Tampa-2, with two deep safeties responsible for a deep half of the field each and five underneath defenders, with the middle defender sinking deeper to fill the hole and allow the deep safeties to split wider. However, the difference with Inverted Tampa-2 is that the outside corners sink back and replace the deep safeties, who play underneath zones instead.

One of the biggest weaknesses in Tampa-2 coverage is the hole on the outside between the deep safety and the corner in the flat. It’s tough for any deep safety to work all the way to the sideline to cover any vertical route from the outside receiver. With Inverted Tampa-2, that weakness is accentuated by the outside corners having to bail deep off the snap and work inside, then having to flip their hips and get back outside. While Inverted Tampa-2 might trick some quarterbacks, Stafford reads it well and knows he has a vertical route outside to his left. He quickly diagnoses the coverage and works to his left, delivering another strong throw. The corner had too much ground to try and make up after having bailed from outside to replace the deep safety, while the flat defender didn’t sink back underneath the throw enough, thanks to the slot receiver threatening to occupy the flat. It’s an excellent throw by Stafford, but the mental process is even better.

Stafford is also wise enough to know when to attack matchups. While the play call might dictate a certain read, Stafford knows against man coverage he can work matchups that he likes and take advantage of them. 

On this play against the Titans, the Lions isolate a single receiver to the left of the formation, with three receivers bunched to the other side. The Titans have cornerback Tye Smith, who isn’t their best corner, isolated in man coverage. Stafford knows he can work that matchup with a double move if he gets man coverage. As he snaps the ball, safety Amani Hooker blitzes off the left side of the offensive line, while the other safety stays in the deep middle of the field. This indicates to Stafford the Titans are in man coverage, so he quickly works to his best matchup. The receiver runs a double move and gets a step on the corner, which is all Stafford needs to unload a strike down the sideline for a big completion.

Poise under pressure

As I mentioned, there aren’t many things defenses can do that Stafford hasn’t seen at this point in his career. His toughness is unquestionable as he has repeatedly shown a willingness to stand tall and deliver throws as defenders close in to hit him. Dealing with pressure is something every quarterback has to be able to do, and Stafford has shown he can remain poised when the defense gets a free rusher.

On the first play of this clip, the Vikings rush their front four and blitz an extra linebacker off the right side of the offensive line. The offensive line spots the blitz and slides inside to pick it up, leaving the defensive end free off the edge. This might seem like a busted protection from the right tackle, but they are taught to protect inside-out, meaning they have to cover the inside gap first because it’s the most immediate path to the quarterback. There is, however, a protection bust from the left side of the line, with the center and left guard leaving the defensive tackle free in the A gap. Stafford feels the pressure and works to his hot route, which is his tight end in the slot to the right. Stafford waits as long as he can for the tight end to break inside on his slant route before delivering his throw. He connects with the tight end for a first down. 

On the second play of the clip, the Vikings send a Cover-0 blitz, meaning every eligible receiver has an assigned defender and the rest of the defenders rush. This guarantees the defense a chance to rush one more defender than the offense can block, but also means the defenders in coverage have no safety help to protect them. Stafford identifies the Cover-0 call pre-snap, and motions his tight end outside to give him better leverage on his slant route and ensure that he doesn’t get caught in traffic from all the defenders rushing inside. The call works perfectly and the tight end runs wide open over the middle in time for Stafford to get his throw away before the pressure arrives. The pass is completed for a first down. 

The final play of the clip shows another example of Stafford facing a free rusher and remaining poised. The Packers get a free rusher off the right side of the line, but Stafford stays calm and finds his receiver spotting up to his right.

Mobility

One of the biggest concerns I’ve heard mentioned with regards to Stafford is mobility. The league has seen an injection of quarterbacks with the athletic ability to extend plays with their legs or scramble for yards on their own. It’s becoming an increasingly threatening aspect of quarterback play in the NFL and the majority of offenses that create explosive plays regularly do so with a quarterback that can buy time for routes to develop down the field or work off-script with the scramble drill. At 32, Stafford isn’t Lamar Jackson, but he never has been (not many are as elusive as Jackson, but you get the point). However, he’s not a statue in the pocket by any means. He has more than enough mobility to move around in the pocket to avoid rushers while keeping his eyes down the field.

The first two plays of this clip show Stafford working against the Colts and stepping up in the pocket to avoid rushers. The first play shows pressure arriving off the right side with Stafford stepping up to avoid it while on the second play, the pressure comes from the left side. Both times Stafford managed to step up in the pocket to avoid the rushers, allowing his blockers to recover and run the defenders by him. He had the awareness to keep his eyes down the field and find receivers spotting up over the middle. We can also see how Stafford is able to drop his arm angle to deliver awkward throws accurately.

The other plays in the clip all show similar examples of Stafford avoiding pressure by stepping up in the pocket while keeping his eyes down the field. It shows he has a good awareness and feel for pressure within the pocket and how to avoid it while not losing track of potential options to throw the ball. On the final play of the clip, Stafford again steps up in the pocket to avoid pressure off his right side before delivering a perfect throw to his receiver in the end zone for a touchdown.

Mobility from within the pocket is a critical part of Stafford’s game and something he does well. But there are times when protection breaks down or all of his throwing options are covered. While Stafford isn’t a threat to run for a 50-yard touchdown on a scramble, he’s athletic enough to pick up yards with his legs when he needs to.

On the first play of this clip, Stafford exhausts all of his passing options but the Jaguars cover them all well. Stafford spots a lane up the middle and takes off scrambling, picking up 17 yards and a first down. On the second play, the Colts bail into a soft zone coverage but get some pressure up front. Stafford steps up in the pocket and could potentially deliver a throw outside. However, with the defense playing so soft, he spots a chance to run for a first down and takes it.

The consistent theme on all of these scrambles is that Stafford typically looks to exhaust all of his passing options as a priority, as every quarterback should. Only when everything is covered or the protection breaks down does he look to run. When he does take off, he has the athletic ability to pick up enough yards to keep the offense moving, without being a significant threat to the defense. He also does a good job of protecting himself, sliding or stepping out of bounds before he can take any big hits. While his running ability won’t blow anyone away, it’s enough for when he needs it, which is perfectly adequate. 

Overall, Stafford is an excellent quarterback that would be a worthwhile addition for any team that is a quarterback away from contending. While he might not be a top five quarterback consistently, he’s certainly in the conversation for top 10. When he’s at his best, he has the arm, accuracy and intelligence to create explosive plays and be one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He might not reach that best on a consistent basis, but his average level is still very good and more than enough to be competitive with a solid team around him.