Mark, I think you have written a very fair assessment. So much has been written about Washington drafting someone at #11 that will contribute straightaway, and the flip side of that is not drafting someone where there are any question marks - injury etc etc. For this reason I am luke warm on Stingley at #11. I would also need to be convinced if he was the BPA at#11 too.
I think there’s an argument to be made that he’d have the most upside available at 11, because if he puts all those positive attributes together he can become what people thought he was in 2019. But I think there’s some bust potential there too and with the injuries on top of that, I’m not sure you could say he’d for certain be the best player available right now.
I wonder how they feel about their third round picks last year. If they do think Dyami Brown/St Juste can develop more and be real contributors, maybe they target some other position than WR/CB at 11.
I was originally thinking cornerback was the move, and Stingley seemed to be at the top, but that was more driven about how there seems to be a gap between gardner + stingley and the other cornerbacks in this draft.
There was an interesting trade scenario on twitter i think about KC giving up their 29th and 30th picks in the draft for the 11th pick. Trade compensation wise, it’s pretty fair, but i’m not sure who we’d target at the bottom of the first. Likely all of the top 5 wrs are gone by that point, may have Dean/Lloyd, etc. Would you make that trade?
I think I’d prefer to drop back into the mid-teens or early 20s with a hope that perhaps Olave or someone like that falls. But the strength of this class seems to be that the players from about 10/15-50 are all relatively equal in terms of talent level. So unless at 11, you’re getting one of the top guys to fall and they’re far and away better than the players you think would be available at 29/30, then I think I’d still take that trade and be happy to add 3 players in that 25-50 range that can all have a significant impact.
I think Brown joins the long legion of "we got a steal" WRers that didn't pan out. Harmon, Hankerson, AGG, etc. Things are different in the pro game and college wideouts routinely face difficulties in the pros. Heck the one who did work out was supposed to be a special teams ace! But Redskins fans, gonna Redskin. I'm not saying to cut Brown. But I wouldn't obsess on gifting him reps either.
BSJ was better than I expected. The injuries are a real concern though, going forward. I don't think he's ever be a #1/2 corner. But he can be a very solid #3.
If they drafted Stingley, do you think they move on from William Jackson after this year (I don't know how much guaranteed money he'd have left on his deal after this year)?
They do have a potential out year on his contract next year. It would cost them about 9m to cut him, but they could save nearly 7m on the cap. If they did it as a post-June 1 cut, they could save nearly 13m on the cap. So I guess it would be a possibility. If they were to draft a corner in the first, I do wonder if Fuller could be a cap casualty. If they cut him as a post-June 1 cut after the draft, he’d come with a 3.1m dead cap hit in both 2022 and 2023, but would save them another 8m on the cap this year.
I get that BPA scenario might mean that taking someone like Stingley, does help the team, however I have a couple of major issues with that. The first is that you make someone on our roster redundant, and I can see why you might make cuts to free up more cap space. But with an already depleted roster, and most of the best FA players already signed what are you going to spend that cap space on. For that reason I would prefer not to draft a CB at #11. Perhaps if Sauce was there and there are no injury concerns.... ...however I would rather not draft a CB at #11.
The other issue, is that I really think we need to draft offence in Round 1, and should give Carson Wentz the offensive weapons to succeed. Indeed I favour going offence in round two as well.
A trade back scenario to the mid to late teens, picking up an extra pick would seem the best option though!
Agreed on trading back as probably the best option. I don’t think Stingley would be the best player available in my eyes, but we do have to remember that the draft isn’t just about helping for this year, it’s building the roster for the future. Strengths of a team can change drastically from year to year. We saw that this year with Washingtons DT unit consisting of Allen, Payne, Ioannidis and Settle being one of the best set of DTs in the NFL. Now in the space of a month, both Ioannidis and Settle are gone and Payne is in a contract year and could be gone this time next year. So suddenly that strength became a need in a short period of time without the correct future planning.
So drafting a corner might not feel wise right now, but if a year from now Jackson struggles again and Fuller regresses or doesn’t fit the desire to play more man coverage, then suddenly both starting corners could be cut and moved on next year and corner becomes a huge need. So while it might not necessarily have a significant impact in the first year (though I think you could move pieces around and make it work), in a years time you’ll be glad that you drafted the best talent that now fills a need because you had the foresight to look at the roster and plan ahead.
But I do think they will look to go offense in the first round and quite possibly the second too. Rivera has said now the priority is making sure Wentz is protect and has enough weapons to work with. The OL is in pretty decent shape despite losing Scherff, so the protection part should be fine, which means adding weapons. I think the team really likes Olave and would be pretty happy with him at 11, or after a trade back to acquire more picks. I could easily seem them coming back in the second round and adding another tight end to cover for Thomas’ injury too. I think the only thing that would prevent them going WR in the first round is if a talent like Kyle Hamilton falls to them and he’s just too good to pass up on.
As usual great content...I'm glad you pointed out some of his flaws. Doesn't mean he is a bad player he just has some technique issues to work on. I don't see the Commanders taking him because of the heavy zone scheme they currently play. Although if they did I would see him struggling because the coaching staff seems unwilling to change to player strengths.
Well, I think they do change to player strengths, they just take a while to do so. And I think that's partly because they haven't necessarily put together a fully cohesive secondary. You have and off zone corner in Fuller, a press man corner in Jackson, Curl and play as a SS or buffalo nickel but has the ability to match up in man while Collins could play both spots too but suited zone. So whatever they played to suit some guys wouldn't always suit the others.
They will probably do something that nobody is expecting, like a lineman on either side. This sort of thing goes down all the time and fans are routinely flummoxed because they dramatically overemphasize need (justifying all sorts of reaches and passing on falling players in non-need areas).
But professional teams have a draft board and will run it, especially in the first round. If they have someone listed as #2 player on THEIR board (which already takes into account position), then they'll grab him if he falls. Even if he is a DT.
That is what the draft board means. It is NOT, "how you think other teams will pick". It is a list in order of all the players, ranked. And you pick the highest guy still on your board. Any arguments about position need to be done BEFORE you are on the clock. Need to be done while CREATING the board.
Sure, in the later rounds, you may deviate, based on what done so far. You're not going to draft 7 of the same position in a row. But pick one? You should KNOW what your top 11 players are, in order. And you are just going to pick the highest guy on that list that falls to you. Duh.
Mark, I think you have written a very fair assessment. So much has been written about Washington drafting someone at #11 that will contribute straightaway, and the flip side of that is not drafting someone where there are any question marks - injury etc etc. For this reason I am luke warm on Stingley at #11. I would also need to be convinced if he was the BPA at#11 too.
I think there’s an argument to be made that he’d have the most upside available at 11, because if he puts all those positive attributes together he can become what people thought he was in 2019. But I think there’s some bust potential there too and with the injuries on top of that, I’m not sure you could say he’d for certain be the best player available right now.
I wonder how they feel about their third round picks last year. If they do think Dyami Brown/St Juste can develop more and be real contributors, maybe they target some other position than WR/CB at 11.
I was originally thinking cornerback was the move, and Stingley seemed to be at the top, but that was more driven about how there seems to be a gap between gardner + stingley and the other cornerbacks in this draft.
There was an interesting trade scenario on twitter i think about KC giving up their 29th and 30th picks in the draft for the 11th pick. Trade compensation wise, it’s pretty fair, but i’m not sure who we’d target at the bottom of the first. Likely all of the top 5 wrs are gone by that point, may have Dean/Lloyd, etc. Would you make that trade?
I think I’d prefer to drop back into the mid-teens or early 20s with a hope that perhaps Olave or someone like that falls. But the strength of this class seems to be that the players from about 10/15-50 are all relatively equal in terms of talent level. So unless at 11, you’re getting one of the top guys to fall and they’re far and away better than the players you think would be available at 29/30, then I think I’d still take that trade and be happy to add 3 players in that 25-50 range that can all have a significant impact.
I think Brown joins the long legion of "we got a steal" WRers that didn't pan out. Harmon, Hankerson, AGG, etc. Things are different in the pro game and college wideouts routinely face difficulties in the pros. Heck the one who did work out was supposed to be a special teams ace! But Redskins fans, gonna Redskin. I'm not saying to cut Brown. But I wouldn't obsess on gifting him reps either.
BSJ was better than I expected. The injuries are a real concern though, going forward. I don't think he's ever be a #1/2 corner. But he can be a very solid #3.
If they drafted Stingley, do you think they move on from William Jackson after this year (I don't know how much guaranteed money he'd have left on his deal after this year)?
They do have a potential out year on his contract next year. It would cost them about 9m to cut him, but they could save nearly 7m on the cap. If they did it as a post-June 1 cut, they could save nearly 13m on the cap. So I guess it would be a possibility. If they were to draft a corner in the first, I do wonder if Fuller could be a cap casualty. If they cut him as a post-June 1 cut after the draft, he’d come with a 3.1m dead cap hit in both 2022 and 2023, but would save them another 8m on the cap this year.
I get that BPA scenario might mean that taking someone like Stingley, does help the team, however I have a couple of major issues with that. The first is that you make someone on our roster redundant, and I can see why you might make cuts to free up more cap space. But with an already depleted roster, and most of the best FA players already signed what are you going to spend that cap space on. For that reason I would prefer not to draft a CB at #11. Perhaps if Sauce was there and there are no injury concerns.... ...however I would rather not draft a CB at #11.
The other issue, is that I really think we need to draft offence in Round 1, and should give Carson Wentz the offensive weapons to succeed. Indeed I favour going offence in round two as well.
A trade back scenario to the mid to late teens, picking up an extra pick would seem the best option though!
Agreed on trading back as probably the best option. I don’t think Stingley would be the best player available in my eyes, but we do have to remember that the draft isn’t just about helping for this year, it’s building the roster for the future. Strengths of a team can change drastically from year to year. We saw that this year with Washingtons DT unit consisting of Allen, Payne, Ioannidis and Settle being one of the best set of DTs in the NFL. Now in the space of a month, both Ioannidis and Settle are gone and Payne is in a contract year and could be gone this time next year. So suddenly that strength became a need in a short period of time without the correct future planning.
So drafting a corner might not feel wise right now, but if a year from now Jackson struggles again and Fuller regresses or doesn’t fit the desire to play more man coverage, then suddenly both starting corners could be cut and moved on next year and corner becomes a huge need. So while it might not necessarily have a significant impact in the first year (though I think you could move pieces around and make it work), in a years time you’ll be glad that you drafted the best talent that now fills a need because you had the foresight to look at the roster and plan ahead.
But I do think they will look to go offense in the first round and quite possibly the second too. Rivera has said now the priority is making sure Wentz is protect and has enough weapons to work with. The OL is in pretty decent shape despite losing Scherff, so the protection part should be fine, which means adding weapons. I think the team really likes Olave and would be pretty happy with him at 11, or after a trade back to acquire more picks. I could easily seem them coming back in the second round and adding another tight end to cover for Thomas’ injury too. I think the only thing that would prevent them going WR in the first round is if a talent like Kyle Hamilton falls to them and he’s just too good to pass up on.
As usual great content...I'm glad you pointed out some of his flaws. Doesn't mean he is a bad player he just has some technique issues to work on. I don't see the Commanders taking him because of the heavy zone scheme they currently play. Although if they did I would see him struggling because the coaching staff seems unwilling to change to player strengths.
Well, I think they do change to player strengths, they just take a while to do so. And I think that's partly because they haven't necessarily put together a fully cohesive secondary. You have and off zone corner in Fuller, a press man corner in Jackson, Curl and play as a SS or buffalo nickel but has the ability to match up in man while Collins could play both spots too but suited zone. So whatever they played to suit some guys wouldn't always suit the others.
They will probably do something that nobody is expecting, like a lineman on either side. This sort of thing goes down all the time and fans are routinely flummoxed because they dramatically overemphasize need (justifying all sorts of reaches and passing on falling players in non-need areas).
But professional teams have a draft board and will run it, especially in the first round. If they have someone listed as #2 player on THEIR board (which already takes into account position), then they'll grab him if he falls. Even if he is a DT.
That is what the draft board means. It is NOT, "how you think other teams will pick". It is a list in order of all the players, ranked. And you pick the highest guy still on your board. Any arguments about position need to be done BEFORE you are on the clock. Need to be done while CREATING the board.
Sure, in the later rounds, you may deviate, based on what done so far. You're not going to draft 7 of the same position in a row. But pick one? You should KNOW what your top 11 players are, in order. And you are just going to pick the highest guy on that list that falls to you. Duh.