Another incredible read Mark, thank you! I know it’s probably physically impossible but I hope you can be a guest on the Kevin Sheehan show or podcast I think he’d be fascinated by your football acumen. Also, quick question since Curl was a former corner what are the odds of him being the full time FS if we get the 2017 Landon back
That’s very kind of you, thank you. Sheehan can get far bigger names with much more football knowledge than me on his podcast (Chris Cooley, for starters), so I’d be surprised if he’d invite me on.
Coming out of college, I thought of Curl as more of a free safety than strong safety, but only in two-deep coverages. I didn’t think he had the range necessarily to be a single deep safety like McCain can. But actually, as we saw last year, his history as a corner enabled him to match up well against tight ends and slot receivers in coverage far better than many safeties would. Curl could certainly play FS if they play two-deep coverages like Quarters, but I think he’ll play more SS if Collins takes time to recover from his injury, or that buffalo nickel role with Collins at SS and McCain at FS.
I love your articles, and am always fascinated to read your opinions, but I think both this and the offense article, you were wearing a pair of burgundy colored glasses. You were a bit of an easy grader with several of them. Not that they can't become what you graded them at, just that many of them aren't that yet.
That’s interesting. Which players do you think I’m too high on. You’re about the only person to say I was too high on players (other than Landon Collins, who most Washington fans wanted me to put him in the Orange tier or lower…)
Mainly, I just think you jumped the gun on some guys - grading them on a projection of what they COULD be rather than what they ARE right now (which is how I perceived the exercise). I could quibble with a few more than are below, but the main ones that jumped out at me are below. I also think that by the end of the season, we'll consider Fitz a red. But I agree he's not right now.
Offense:
-Antonio Gibson has proven nothing yet, and should be a purple. Yes, I buy his upside too, but he really only stood out in 3 or 4 games, two against a historically bad Cowboy defense, and another against the not very good Bengals. He should be purple.
-Adam Humphries has been hurt multiple years and even back in his best season was little more than a JAG (Just A Guy) as a slot receiver with better receivers drawing coverage from him. Cam Sims and Humphries really should be oranges until they prove otherwise.
On defense
-Jamin Davis should be a green until he's at least taken some snaps and shown us what he is. Also, just my prediction, but I think Davis starts at Mike this year. I know Del Rio implied he wouldn't, but I think he'll change his mind by opening day. That will be Davis' long term home, and the sooner he gets into it, the faster he learns it. And I think he'll do well enough that the team won't feel they need to ease him in.
-Kendall Fuller should be a purple. Yes, he can play well at times, but he's no more than an adequate starter. He may actually improve if St. Juste pushes him to the slot, where I think he's better than on the outside. I think Del Rio wants to play alot more press and so St. Juste is going to be the main outside corner. But if Fuller plays on the outside like last year, with WTF playing a better slate of QBs, Fuller won't do well.
-Jimmy Moreland, despite me being a fan who wanted SO BAD for him to be more, hasn't really been good enough to call a purple. He's a backup level player. Which in your scheme, I understand to be orange.
-Jon Bostic, I know is valuable as the defense's signal caller and coordinator on the field, but he's a serious liability in coverage, gets blocked and stays blocked too easily, and just generally doesn't make plays. I think Davis takes his job and Hudson ends up starting at Will when they're in base...even though that leaves them very light at LB when in base.
I actually agree with you that Collins belongs in purple. He had a horrific first half last year, but he's been a better-than-average SS for too many years to drop him all the way to orange off one bad half season and an injury. His reputation (and salary) vastly outstrip his real production, especially in coverage, but he's not backup tier either. If he keeps playing like he did in the first half of last year, I'll change my mind and consider him orange. Just not yet.
Interesting to see your perspective. On those guys -
Gibson is someone I originally had as a purple actually, but because he showed considerable improvement as a running back as the season progressed, and averaged nearly 5 yards per carry along with 11 TDs, I bumped him up. I think the team will view him as a red and I expect he’ll play to that level from week 1 this season. It is perhaps some projection, sure, but its based on the progression he showed as a runner last year, plus the potential for an expanded role in the passing game improving his production further.
Humphries isn’t anything particularly special, I don’t disagree, but he’s a solid slot receiver that understands the intricacies of playing in the slot and how to make himself available for the quarterback. That has value, especially on third down. Yes the injuries have hindered him, but I think he’s proven he can be a reliable starting slot receiver and be productive. I suspect if Dyami Brown develops quickly enough, we’ll see Samuel in the slot and Brown outside in 3WR sets, but Humphries is a solid player in his own right.
Most rookies I put in the green category, but as I wrote in the piece, you don’t take a guy in the first round if you don’t think he’s at least a red and will perform as one from day one. If you think he ends up taking over the mike spot from Bostic, then that would suggest he is a red.
I think Fuller is an underrated corner. I would say I agree about him in the slot to a degree, but that’s based off what he did in Washington as a slot defender previously, rather than anything I’ve seen recently. He’s not an elite man cover corner, but that’s not the system he’s asked to play. As an off corner with great instincts and anticipation, he’s a solid red for me.
Moreland is perhaps some projection based on potential too. I think its a schematic thing with him. He’s a real smart player and plays very well in the slot against short stuff. He can be beaten by big slot receivers physically and doesn’t necessarily have the long speed to stay with receivers down the field, but I think he’s a starting caliber slot. Not amazing, but starter level is purple.
I think Bostic is underrated too. Again, don’t think he’s a red or anything special, but I do think he’s a solid, reliable, consistent starting LB in the NFL. Do I want him covering George Kittle one-on-one? Absolutely not, but not many LBs can do that. He’s solid in zone coverages and understands how to fit runs effectively. His job isn’t always to make the play, it’s more often to fill the gap and spill the runner to another LB (likely Davis, if he plays the Will)
Another incredible read Mark, thank you! I know it’s probably physically impossible but I hope you can be a guest on the Kevin Sheehan show or podcast I think he’d be fascinated by your football acumen. Also, quick question since Curl was a former corner what are the odds of him being the full time FS if we get the 2017 Landon back
That’s very kind of you, thank you. Sheehan can get far bigger names with much more football knowledge than me on his podcast (Chris Cooley, for starters), so I’d be surprised if he’d invite me on.
Coming out of college, I thought of Curl as more of a free safety than strong safety, but only in two-deep coverages. I didn’t think he had the range necessarily to be a single deep safety like McCain can. But actually, as we saw last year, his history as a corner enabled him to match up well against tight ends and slot receivers in coverage far better than many safeties would. Curl could certainly play FS if they play two-deep coverages like Quarters, but I think he’ll play more SS if Collins takes time to recover from his injury, or that buffalo nickel role with Collins at SS and McCain at FS.
I love your articles, and am always fascinated to read your opinions, but I think both this and the offense article, you were wearing a pair of burgundy colored glasses. You were a bit of an easy grader with several of them. Not that they can't become what you graded them at, just that many of them aren't that yet.
That’s interesting. Which players do you think I’m too high on. You’re about the only person to say I was too high on players (other than Landon Collins, who most Washington fans wanted me to put him in the Orange tier or lower…)
Mainly, I just think you jumped the gun on some guys - grading them on a projection of what they COULD be rather than what they ARE right now (which is how I perceived the exercise). I could quibble with a few more than are below, but the main ones that jumped out at me are below. I also think that by the end of the season, we'll consider Fitz a red. But I agree he's not right now.
Offense:
-Antonio Gibson has proven nothing yet, and should be a purple. Yes, I buy his upside too, but he really only stood out in 3 or 4 games, two against a historically bad Cowboy defense, and another against the not very good Bengals. He should be purple.
-Adam Humphries has been hurt multiple years and even back in his best season was little more than a JAG (Just A Guy) as a slot receiver with better receivers drawing coverage from him. Cam Sims and Humphries really should be oranges until they prove otherwise.
On defense
-Jamin Davis should be a green until he's at least taken some snaps and shown us what he is. Also, just my prediction, but I think Davis starts at Mike this year. I know Del Rio implied he wouldn't, but I think he'll change his mind by opening day. That will be Davis' long term home, and the sooner he gets into it, the faster he learns it. And I think he'll do well enough that the team won't feel they need to ease him in.
-Kendall Fuller should be a purple. Yes, he can play well at times, but he's no more than an adequate starter. He may actually improve if St. Juste pushes him to the slot, where I think he's better than on the outside. I think Del Rio wants to play alot more press and so St. Juste is going to be the main outside corner. But if Fuller plays on the outside like last year, with WTF playing a better slate of QBs, Fuller won't do well.
-Jimmy Moreland, despite me being a fan who wanted SO BAD for him to be more, hasn't really been good enough to call a purple. He's a backup level player. Which in your scheme, I understand to be orange.
-Jon Bostic, I know is valuable as the defense's signal caller and coordinator on the field, but he's a serious liability in coverage, gets blocked and stays blocked too easily, and just generally doesn't make plays. I think Davis takes his job and Hudson ends up starting at Will when they're in base...even though that leaves them very light at LB when in base.
I actually agree with you that Collins belongs in purple. He had a horrific first half last year, but he's been a better-than-average SS for too many years to drop him all the way to orange off one bad half season and an injury. His reputation (and salary) vastly outstrip his real production, especially in coverage, but he's not backup tier either. If he keeps playing like he did in the first half of last year, I'll change my mind and consider him orange. Just not yet.
Interesting to see your perspective. On those guys -
Gibson is someone I originally had as a purple actually, but because he showed considerable improvement as a running back as the season progressed, and averaged nearly 5 yards per carry along with 11 TDs, I bumped him up. I think the team will view him as a red and I expect he’ll play to that level from week 1 this season. It is perhaps some projection, sure, but its based on the progression he showed as a runner last year, plus the potential for an expanded role in the passing game improving his production further.
Humphries isn’t anything particularly special, I don’t disagree, but he’s a solid slot receiver that understands the intricacies of playing in the slot and how to make himself available for the quarterback. That has value, especially on third down. Yes the injuries have hindered him, but I think he’s proven he can be a reliable starting slot receiver and be productive. I suspect if Dyami Brown develops quickly enough, we’ll see Samuel in the slot and Brown outside in 3WR sets, but Humphries is a solid player in his own right.
Most rookies I put in the green category, but as I wrote in the piece, you don’t take a guy in the first round if you don’t think he’s at least a red and will perform as one from day one. If you think he ends up taking over the mike spot from Bostic, then that would suggest he is a red.
I think Fuller is an underrated corner. I would say I agree about him in the slot to a degree, but that’s based off what he did in Washington as a slot defender previously, rather than anything I’ve seen recently. He’s not an elite man cover corner, but that’s not the system he’s asked to play. As an off corner with great instincts and anticipation, he’s a solid red for me.
Moreland is perhaps some projection based on potential too. I think its a schematic thing with him. He’s a real smart player and plays very well in the slot against short stuff. He can be beaten by big slot receivers physically and doesn’t necessarily have the long speed to stay with receivers down the field, but I think he’s a starting caliber slot. Not amazing, but starter level is purple.
I think Bostic is underrated too. Again, don’t think he’s a red or anything special, but I do think he’s a solid, reliable, consistent starting LB in the NFL. Do I want him covering George Kittle one-on-one? Absolutely not, but not many LBs can do that. He’s solid in zone coverages and understands how to fit runs effectively. His job isn’t always to make the play, it’s more often to fill the gap and spill the runner to another LB (likely Davis, if he plays the Will)