Where does WR Luke McCaffrey stand entering his second year?

Breaking down WR Luke McCaffrey's rookie season and where he stands entering his second year

Earlier this week I wrote about Commanders second year tight end Ben Sinnott, who had a disappointing rookie year in terms of catch production given the high draft status and expectations. Another second year player in a similar situation is receiver Luke McCaffrey. McCaffrey had a little more production as a receiver compared to Sinnott, but still only managed 18 catches for 168 yards. McCaffrey is a player I get asked about a lot and I’ve seen a lot of fans ready to write him off as a bust after last season. So I figured I’d dive into McCaffrey’s rookie year, see what his role was, what he did well and why he struggled to be productive.

Full disclosure here - while putting together this piece, I found a post I had written back in November breaking down McCaffrey’s progress in his rookie year. Most of the clips I wanted to use and talk about regarding McCaffrey were in that post, so I am reusing much of the analysis from there. I’ve re-read the piece and still believe in what I wrote at the time, and will be editing it to adjust some parts and add some new pieces, but I wanted to be up front about reusing a large amount of post I wrote a few months ago.

With that said, let’s start our review of McCaffrey by looking at what he did well at the start of the season, when he had a few games with multiple catches.

Here against the Cardinals, McCaffrey lines up as the point man in a bunch set to the right. The Commanders run a Bow concept, which consists of a basic cross over the middle, a flat route and then a third receiver spotting up in between the other two. McCaffrey runs the basic cross here and the idea is to try and create a high-low read, where if a zone defender attaches to the spot route underneath, McCaffrey can break open behind him but if the defender sinks back to McCaffrey, the spot route will be open. However, the Cardinals play man coverage rather than zone, with McCaffrey matched up on safety Jalen Thompson.

McCaffrey runs a nice route, closing up the gap between himself and the defender quickly and then selling a little fake to the outside before making his cut. He really makes a point of stepping on the defenders toes as he gets close, which helps him sell the fake to the outside even more. The defender reacts to that fake, which enables McCaffrey to separate as he breaks over the middle. Jayden Daniels initially works to his left off the snap but comes back to the right side when he doesn’t like what he sees. McCaffrey’s route is the first one that comes into his vision as he progresses to the right side and he immediately pulls the trigger. From the end zone replay angle, we can see McCaffrey does a nice job reaching out and making a good hands catch away from his body. It’s a sneaky tough catch because McCaffrey is at full extension while running at full speed and the ball is slightly high with a lot of heat on it. But he secures the pass and picks up the first down before the safety makes the tackle.

Working across the middle of the field can be daunting for some receivers because you never quite know where that safety is that could land a big hit. But McCaffrey did show he has no fear in being targeted over the middle and will happily make a catch in traffic.

On this play down in the red zone, the Commanders run a quick seam concept. Tight end Zach Ertz aligns inside McCaffrey in the slot and he runs a crossing route designed to grab the attention of any defender inside and vacate space behind him for McCaffrey. McCaffrey runs the quick seam route, getting up the field for a few steps before breaking inside into the space vacated by Ertz. The Buccaneers play man coverage, so this concept isn’t quite as effective. The slot corner breaks on McCaffrey’s route as he comes inside, while the deep safety and even the defender covering Ertz peel off to try and swarm around McCaffrey. Despite that, McCaffrey makes the grab, secures the pass and turns up the field looking to try and get into the end zone. Unfortunately he was stopped just marginally short, but he was willing to put his body on the line to try and get there.

Over his first five games, McCaffrey lodged 10 of his 18 total catches for the season. He had three catches against the Bucs in the opener, three catches against the Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 3 and three catches against the Browns in Week 5. In that Browns game, he looked to be taking a step up in terms of importance, being trusted in a key situation.

On this third and five against the Browns, McCaffrey aligns in the slot and runs an out-breaking route towards the sideline. The Browns are known for playing a lot of man coverage, so McCaffrey will know he needs to run a good route to separate and make himself available in a key spot here, especially as he’s working against Greg Newsome here. At the snap, McCaffrey releases outside and works vertical while slightly fading towards the sideline. This is by design to try and sell a slot fade, something everyone knows that Jayden Daniels loves to throw. Newsome stays on top of the route well and if it had been a fade, McCaffrey wouldn’t have been available. But, that’s the exact position McCaffrey wants Newsome to be. As he gets to the top of the route, McCaffrey suddenly surprises Newsome by breaking outside to the sideline.

McCaffrey creates a good yard or two of separation as he breaks outside, and Daniels shows some good trust in him by releasing the throw as McCaffrey makes his break. However, the throw is slightly inside, forcing McCaffrey to slow his momentum and work back to the ball, which enables Newsome to come back into the play. Newsome makes up ground and arrives at the catch point just slightly before the ball does. Despite that, McCaffrey shows great hands and play strength to hold off Newsome while still making the catch to complete the third down conversion.

That play seemed to indicate that McCaffrey was developing a good rapport with Jayden Daniels and was ready to take a step up in terms of role and importance within the offense. However, that step up never materialized as the season progressed. What did materialize was how unlucky McCaffrey was throughout stretches of his rookie season.

This clip shows a few examples of the missed opportunities that the Commanders had with McCaffrey in his rookie season. The first play of the clip comes against the Steelers in Week 10. McCaffrey lines up in the slot to the left with the Commanders backed up near their own goal line. McCaffrey runs a deep over route and immediately burns the slot corner off the snap. He gives one jab step outside at the snap before releasing inside and runs right by the defender. He has two full yards of separation by the time Daniels makes the throw, but unfortunately the pass from Daniels, while under pressure, is just a yard overthrown. McCaffrey does his best to try and catch up to the ball, even throwing in a diving effort, but couldn’t quite reach it. If the throw had been on target, I think there’s every chance McCaffrey runs that into the end zone for a huge touchdown.

The second play of the clip goes back to Week 2 vs the Giants. McCaffrey lines up in the slot to the right this time and runs the inside post on a double post concept. This one isn’t as clear cut of an opportunity but it was still an opportunity nonetheless. Daniels hits the top of his drop and sees a lane emerging in front of him. He opts to try and take off scrambling, despite having a clean pocket to work from. This was a habit Daniels had early in the season but improved as the year went on. As he scrambles, you can see how the coverage plays out for McCaffrey. The deep safety was opening his hips to turn and run with the outside post route while there was nobody replacing him from the back side. McCaffrey was running into wide open field and had Daniels not scrambled, he could have found him for another huge play.

The third play of the clip comes from the Bears game. McCaffrey aligns in a stacked set to the right of the formation. He runs a simple corner route while the receiver outside of him works underneath. The Bears have a coverage bust with both defenders in coverage working to the underneath receiver, leaving McCaffrey wide open in the back of the end zone. Daniels sees McCaffrey open but is under pressure from Montez Sweat so can’t deliver the throw right away. He manages to scramble away from Sweat enough to deliver the throw, but the pass is just marginally too far out of bounds. McCaffrey catches the ball but can’t keep both feet in the end zone as he does it.

Those were three potential touchdown plays for McCaffrey that could have doubled the amount of yards he had on the season, but he just missed out on each one for one reason or another. This was a bit of a trend for McCaffrey. In his somewhat limited opportunities, he did run open a fair amount, but the ball couldn’t find him. As we saw there, sometimes there was pressure preventing Daniels from making a throw, sometimes it was Daniels scrambling and not seeing him and sometimes it was just a missed throw. There were also some plays where McCaffrey had run open and the ball wasn’t thrown his way.