Three different offseason plans for the Commanders
Choose your favorite out of three different offseason plans for the Washington Commanders
As it’s Friday and we’re still waiting for the Washington Commanders to hire an offensive coordinator to get a better picture of how the rest of the offseason will turn out, I figured I’d try something a little different today. I challenged myself with a fun task of putting together three different offseason plans for the Commanders for you guys to debate and pick your favorite. Each plan comes from a different mindset and approach for entering the offseason.
The first plan is a low budget plan, made with the idea that Dan Snyder holds out for a bigger offer, delaying the sale of the team until the summer and spending as little money as possible in the meantime. The second plan is an all in plan, with coach Ron Rivera understanding that he needs to go all in to win if he has a chance to impress a new owner and keep his job after next season. The final plan takes a more balanced approach, trying to find a nice middle ground between those two extremes.
Before I jump into the first plan, let me layout a few things first. Obviously we don’t yet know who the offensive coordinator is going to be, so these plans will each pick a different candidate to hire. However, all three plans will all be based around Sam Howell being given the opportunity to become the starting quarterback, given Ron Rivera has now stated publicly multiple times that he intends to take that path. When it comes to contract numbers, I’m working off Spotrac cap numbers and salary projections. Also, I haven’t yet studied any draft prospects, so when it comes to the draft section, I’m just going to list a position for a first and second round pick, not any specific names. So with that all said, let’s get started.
The Low Budget Continuity Plan
In this scenario, the sale of the team drags on into the summer well after the draft. In the meantime, Dan Snyder wants to operate on as small a budget as possible because why would he want to spend money when he’s about to sell the team? Without much money available, Ron Rivera can’t go on a spending spree with players or coaches, which leads to…
Offensive Coordinator: Ken Zampese.
Zampese gets promoted from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator with play-calling responsibilities. His last stint as an offensive coordinator came in Cincinnati, where the offense struggled mightily in 2016 and he was fired just two games into the 2017 season after the offense scored just nine points and zero touchdowns in those two games, leading to a “near mutiny” situation. However, without the budget to go out and entice a new offensive coordinator and allow him to hire his own staff, Zampese is the obvious in-house candidate to step up while retaining the current group of offensive coaches.
It’s an incredibly uninspiring choice, but sadly a realistic possibility. That said, there are some benefits. Zampese would be able to retain the system and language used by Scott Turner, meaning Sam Howell wouldn’t have to learn a new system. It would also mean Zampese could continue to develop Howell as he has this season, giving Howell a consistent message with regards to fundamentals and techniques throughout his first two years in the league.
Players to release: QB Carson Wentz (saves $26million, no dead cap), OT Cornelius Lucas (saves $2.8million, $900k dead cap). $28.8million cap saved.
There’s plenty of candidates for the Commanders to release this offseason. Wentz is practically guaranteed to be cut, given they can save $26 million without any penalty for cutting him. Lucas saves them a nice chunk without costing them too much of a dead cap penalty. Other cap casualty candidates could be viable here too, but the rest came with dead cap hits of over $2.5million, so I opted against that. Plus with little money to actually spend on new players, retaining current players and not creating new holes to fill became more of a priority here.
Players to restructure: C Chase Roullier, TE Logan Thomas, LT Charles Leno. $10.1million cap saved.
In other plans, this trio could all be cut candidates, but as we’re trying to save as much money as possible without creating any additional holes to fill here, they are all restructured. Restructured contracts essentially kick cap hits into future years of contracts, giving more cap space now while sacrificing it in future years. Rivera knows he may well not be here in future years, so by restructuring these contracts, he essentially borrows $10million from future cap space he might not even have the chance to use to give himself just a little bit more spending power this offseason.
Players to re-sign: DT Daron Payne (franchise tag), QB Taylor Heinicke, OL Wes Schweitzer, LB Cole Holcomb, S Jeremy Reaves, DE Efe Obada, C Tyler Larsen, WR Cam Sims.
This plan is all about continuity, so it makes sense the team would focus on retaining its own players. Figuring out a long-term deal for Payne proves too difficult with Snyder unwilling to fork out much money up front, so the team retains him on the franchise tag. While the tag is fully guaranteed money, it doesn’t require a big signing bonus, allowing Washington to keep Payne and let the new owner figure out a long-term deal later on. Schweitzer, Holcomb and Reaves have all been key contributors and should be fairly cheap to re-sign, as should rotational players like Efe Obada and Cam Sims. Heinicke provides more continuity and an excellent back up for Howell while Larsen returns to back up Roullier at center again.
Key free agent acquisitions: RT Ju’Wuan James, G Ben Powers, CB Kyle Fuller.
There’s no huge free agent splash here, as to be expected with the theme of this plan, but they do add a few capable players. James and Powers both join from Baltimore, having both played in a physical run-first offense that Rivera insists on building his offense around in Washington. Kyle Fuller also moves from Baltimore to join up with his brother Kendall in the Commadners’ secondary. He’s an intelligent corner that should fit the system and push Washington’s current two starting corners for playing time.
Draft picks: First round - CB, Second round - TE.
An offensive lineman could easily be considered in the first round here, but with a starting group of Leno, Powers, Roullier, Schweitzer and James, with Sam Cosmi, Andrew Norwell, Tyler Larsen and Chris Paul backing them up, the team feels comfortable addressing line depth later on in the draft. Instead, they opt to take a cornerback in the first round, providing the team with four solid cornerbacks and far more depth than they’ve had at the position in recent years.
In the second round, they add a tight end that can balance the attack as a solid pass catcher and run blocker. While Logan Thomas could potentially offer more as a pure pass catcher, if he returns to full health, in a run-first offense you need a tight end that can both catch passes and still be a reliable blocker. Thomas isn’t good enough as a blocker to fill that roll and John Bates isn’t good enough as a receiver to fill it either, so finding a happy medium in the second round adds balance to the offense.
Overall, it’s a pretty uninspiring plan, but not a totally unrealistic one. It’s not necessarily a bad one either. Zampese is likely a worse coordinator than Turner, but key players are retained, as is the system while the offensive line does get upgraded with some lineman used to a run-first offense. Cornerback depth is addressed with a cheap veteran capable of pushing incumbent starters Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste, while a first-round rookie is added to the mix too.
The All In Plan
In contrast to the previous plan, in this scenario Dan Snyder doesn’t restrict Rivera, instead deciding that any money he spends now is little compared to the billions he’s set to make whenever the sale goes through. That enables Rivera to make some bigger moves in order to push the team forward and make some noise in the playoffs. That’s his best chance to impress a new owner and keep his job beyond this season. This leads us to…
Offensive Coordinator: Eric Bieniemy.
It certainly appears as though this is Rivera’s top target for the position. He’s publicly admitted to waiting to be allowed to interview a coach that’s in the Super Bowl, which we all know at this point to be Bieniemy, the current offensive coordinator of the Chiefs. Being able to convince Bieniemy to take the job might take some work, but Rivera has no restrictions here so he can make some promises to invest heavily on the offensive side of the ball and make the job more attractive to Bieniemy. Bieniemy is convinced by Rivera’s free agency plan to revamp the offensive line and agrees to join, but to fund that spending spree in free agency, first we need to make some cap room.
Players to release: QB Carson Wentz (saves $26million, no dead cap), TE Logan Thomas (saves $5.1million, $3.5million dead cap), C Chase Roullier ($4.3million saved, $8.1million dead cap), OT Charles Leno ($7.9million saved, $4.5million dead cap), OT Cornelius Lucas (saves $2.8million, $900k dead cap). $46.2million saved total.
Wentz, Thomas and Lucas are obvious cap casualties. Roullier is a tougher one because when he’s healthy, he’s an excellent player. However, he’s had two years back-to-back with significant injuries now and while his $8million dead cap is a lot to eat, for this spending spree to happen, the team needs every bit of room it can make. Similarly, Charles Leno isn’t a bad left tackle, but that move will make more sense once we reach free agency.
Players to restructure: DT Jonathan Allen. $8.6million cap saved.
To further increase the cap space, the Commanders restructure the contract of defensive tackle Jonthan Allen. Pushing $8.6million into future years isn’t ideal, but it provides critical space to make big additions.
Players to re-sign: LB Cole Holcomb, S Jeremy Reaves.
Coming off an injury, Holcomb returns to a system he knows on a one-year deal to prove his health and hit the market a year later when he can potentially earn a much better contract. Reaves is a key player on special teams and important depth at safety, so he returns too. There is a noticeable absence here though, with Daron Payne being allowed to walk. There is definitely a chance to try and tag him with the intent to trade him, but if a trade doesn’t materialize then that tag takes up far too much cap space for Washington to handle with the big plans in free agency. Perhaps they can get a return for him, but the important point here is that he’s not back with the team.
Key free agent acquisitions: LT Orlando Brown, RT Jawaan Taylor, TE Dalton Schultz.
Rivera managed to land Bieniemy with the promise of spending significantly in free agency to improve the offensive line for him. In Kansas City, Bieniemy saw the Chiefs lose the Super Bowl while being unable to protect Patrick Mahomes, so they spent the next offseason addressing the offensive line. They spent big on free agent guard Joe Thuney and traded a first-round pick for Orlando Brown, while also spending draft picks on two more offensive lineman.Rivera and Bieniemy hope to repeat that in Washington and their first move is to bring in the left tackle Bieniemy has coached in Kansas City.
Orlando Brown has some significant questions about his ability to hold up in pass protection as a left tackle, but he’s an absolute mauler in the run game and is still young enough to improve under OL coach John Matsko. But the big money moves don’t stop there. With Brown plugged in at left tackle, the team goes out and lands Jaguars right tackle Jawaan Taylor to give themselves bookend tackles that both play with a mean streak. This in turn allows Sam Cosmi to kick inside to guard and boost the interior of the line.
On top of that, Washington lands top free agent tight end Dalton Schultz. With Logan Thomas gone, the team needs a new number one tight end and Schultz offers a solid overall package as both a blocker and pass catcher. Bieniemy understands the value of having good tight ends from his time with the Chiefs and while Schultz isn’t close to Travis Kelce, he’s a good player in his own right.
Draft picks: First round - C, Second round - CB.
Cornerback is still high on the list of needs, but with Roullier gone the team needs an anchor in the middle of the offensive line to pair with Sam Howell at quarterback. The Commanders take a center with the 16th pick to complete the offensive line rebuild and circle back for a corner in the second round to address that need.
This plan is certainly a lot more flashy than the first one, but it comes with some big risks. We don’t fully know what Bieniemy is like as a play-caller given Andy Reid’s control and influence in Kansas City. Losing Daron Payne could have huge consequences for a defense that has been so reliant on his partnership with Jonathan Allen. Orlando Brown has struggled as a pass protector in the playoffs and could end up being a bust as a big free agent acquisition.
But there is also significant upside in this plan. If Bieniemy can provide the structure of the Chiefs offense and if the heavy investment in the offensive line can provide Sam Howell with time, the Commanders have the weapons already in place to really hurt opposing defenses. It’s a risky move for the organization and one that could get everyone fired and leave the team in a bad spot this time next year, but Rivera may well figure that’s likely to happen with a new owner anyway, so might as well go all in now and give it everything he’s got.
The Stay Medium Plan
This final plan tries to strike a balance between the two extremes we’ve just explored. In this plan, Snyder is willing to let Rivera spend some cash, but won’t let him go crazy with it. Rivera also knows that a new owner likely wouldn’t appreciate him going all in and sacrificing the next few years just to try and impress this year. This leads us to…
Offensive Coordinator: Pat Shurmur.
Shurmur isn’t as exciting as Bieniemy or some of the other candidates that Rivera has interviewed, but he has plenty of experience and has produced some decent offenses in the past. He also has a solid history with younger quarterbacks, designing an offense that keeps things simple for them and allowing their talents to shine through. He’s not flashy, but he can be effective. He won’t demand the same level of investment as the previous scenario, but the team will still need to revamp the offensive line.
Players to release: QB Carson Wentz (saves $26million, no dead cap), TE Logan Thomas (saves $5.1million, $3.5million dead cap), C Chase Roullier ($4.3million saved, $8.1million dead cap), OT Cornelius Lucas (saves $2.8million, $900k dead cap). $38.3million saved total.
Wentz and Lucas are again relatively simple cuts, as is Thomas. Roullier is another tough one like before but there is a plan to replace him. Unlike in the previous plan, Charles Leno is retained as the starting left tackle.
Players to restructure: DT Jonathan Allen. LT Charles Leno. $12.6million cap saved.
This time Leno joins Allen with the restructured contracts to help open up some more cap space this year in order to provide some flexibility with certain moves. Allen certainly has multiple years left of strong production, so his restructure shouldn’t hurt. Leno’s might be a bit more costly in a year’s time, but it’s not totally unmanageable.
Players to re-sign: DT Daron Payne (long-term deal), S Kam Curl (extension), OL Wes Schweitzer, LB Cole Holcomb, S Jeremy Reaves, DE Efe Obada, WR Cam Sims.
The key to this plan is retaining and adding players with specific roles for team. We know that Payne is a key cog in that defensive line alongside Jonathan Allen, so he becomes a priority to bring back on a long-term deal. With that deal done, attention then turns to Kam Curl, who isn’t a free agent but merits an early extension. It’s a smart move by the Commanders to get out ahead and lock him up a year early, but it does come with a bigger cap charge this year, impacting their ability to target any big name free agents.
Holcomb and Reaves are back again in this plan, as is Schweitzer. Schweitzer is seen as a key cog on the offensive line with Shurmur planning to implement the zone blocking scheme as the foundation for his offense. He might not be the biggest, strongest or best in pass protection, but he generates a huge amount of movement in the zone scheme and has the athleticism to get out in front on screen passes too. Efe Obada returns as a rotation hybrid defensive end/tackle and Sims returns to add some much needed height to the receiving group.
Key free agent acquisitions: RT Kaleb McGary, C Garrett Bradbury, QB Teddy Bridgewater
None of these are flashy names, but they all are signed with good plans of how they fit the system. McGary comes over from Atlanta, where he started at right tackle in a zone blocking scheme. That allows Cosmi to slide inside to guard while still showing off his athleticism in the zone scheme as well. Bradbury is another strong zone blocker that can plug in at center and replace Roullier in the middle of the offensive line. With Leno retained at left tackle, Schweitzer re-signed for the left guard spot, Bradbury at center, Cosmi at right guard and McGary at right tackle, the offense suddenly has a clear identity to build from. It might not be flashy, but it should be effective.
Teddy Bridgewater is another key signing as the back up quarterback to Sam Howell. He has experience in Shurmurs system and should be a good mentor to Howell to help him not only learn the system but also offers a lot of experiences, both good and bad, for Howell to tap into and learn from.
Draft picks: First round - TE, Second round - CB
With the offensive line mostly settled, the final piece needed for a zone blocking team is a tight end that can hold up as both an in-line blocker and offer a legitimate receiving threat. Corner might appear to be a more significant need, but that type of tight end is hard to find and hugely valuable in an offense such as this one. On top of that, Rivera has always managed to find cornerbacks on the second and third day of the draft that fit his system and can be productive. This system doesn’t necessarily demand a typical first-round talent at corner, though I’m sure they would strongly consider one. But here I’m taking a tight end first and picking up a corner in the second.
This plan might be a bit closer to the low budget plan than the all in plan in terms of moving the needle for fans, but it might also be the most realistic. Being able to get long-term deals done for both Payne and Curl would be hugely significant for the future of this defense. McGary and Bradbury aren’t necessarily the biggest names to revamp the offensive line, but they have skill sets that fit the needs of the system and with the likes of Cosmi, Schweitzer and Chris Paul all having similar skill sets, the offensive line would have a clear identity to build a foundation out of.
So, what plan would you prefer? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section. Feel free to make up your own offseason plan too, those are always fun to put together and compare with other people. Do remember this is all just a bit of fun and not to take any of this too seriously.
Great article!
I think that I like the "All in Plan" best. However, it seems to me that there are 2 people who are the most likely buyers of the team, Harris (the guy who owns NBA and NHL teams, and Bezos, who owns everything else. If I were Rivera, I would try to approach those two guys and ask for some guidance in case they become the new owners of the Commanders. When you described the cap figures in your scenarios, you were describing something less than $50 million total. these guys are bidding for an entity for which they are bidding something in the range of 6.5 Billion dollars. That is about 1.5% of the purchase price. The 2023 performance of the team must be worth something to the potential purchasers.
On the performance side of the matter, I would concentrate on the OL as the fastest way to improve this team. The defense is decent, maybe needing a middle linebacker, and the offense is almost there, with the addition of a few better linemen. I will assume that Howell will be an improvement at QB, the backfield and the receiver positions are prime. At TE, Logan is certainly adequate, as is Bates. the other 2 guys are an unknown to me, but the coaches must have some opinion.
This would be my approach to 2023.
Thanks,
Pat Bell