State of the Roster: Commanders Defense

Breaking down where things stand with the Commanders defense heading into the offseason

Earlier this week I broke down the state of the Commanders offense heading into the offseason, going position-by-position to see who is under contract for next season, who’s a free agent and evaluated the level of need at each position. Today, it’s the turn of the defense.

Defensive Tackle

On the roster: Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Johnny Newton, Norell Pollard

Free agents: Sheldon Day

Cut candidates: Jonathan Allen ($6m dead cap, $16.47m saved)

Analysis: One of the biggest questions of the offseason will be what to do with Jonathan Allen. Allen has been consistently one of the Commanders best defensive players since he was drafted but due to his contract and the contract of Daron Payne, questions over his future remain. Allen and Payne account for two of the three largest cap hits on the Commanders roster for 2025 as things stand. While both are good players individually and both have a lot to offer, the defensive line overall has not been good enough to say that level of cap space merits being dedicated to two interior defensive lineman. The Commanders also have a high draft pick invested in Johnny Newton, who the team will hope can develop into a franchise cornerstone piece.

That leaves the Commanders with a decision to make regarding Allen and Payne. Personally, I’ve always felt Allen is the better overall player. Payne is probably a better run defender, or at least he is more consistent in that regard, but Allen is by far the better pass rusher and he can be more disruptive as a run defender too, which does suit the style Dan Quinn and Joe Whitt Jr. are looking for. However, this isn’t just a straight question of which player is better. There’s lots of other factors at play here.

For one, Allen just turned 30 a few weeks ago and is entering the final year of his contract. Payne won't turn 28 until May and has a contract that runs through the 2026 season. On top of that, Allen just missed most of the season with an injury and is now at an age where wear and tear on the body takes its toll. His contract is one the Commanders can move on from fairly easily too. There is a $6m dead cap charge, but they would save $16.47m on the cap, so there would be a strong net gain. By contrast, Payne’s contract would be very hard to get out of. Cutting him would give the Commanders a $25.8m dead cap hit, so that’s simply not going to happen.

Seemingly then, that leaves the Commanders with three options. 1. Cut Allen and move on. 2. Sign Allen to an extension that could bring down his cap number in 2025 but tie more future money in this defensive tackle pairing long term. 3. Try to trade Payne and keep Allen. I think option three is quite unlikely. I’m sure there would be a trade market for Payne, but I’m not sure they’d get a good enough deal to trade Payne and take on a $16.8m dead cap hit for doing so. Perhaps I’m wrong and the league would value Payne higher, but he hasn’t been able to consistently rush the passer to the levels that a player of his contract value would suggest he should.

I do think both option one and two are on the table. The Commanders do have the cap space to try and extend Allen for a few years, spread out the cap hit a bit more and make that percentage of the cap dedicated to defensive tackles a bit more manageable. He’s also a big leader on that defense and set a fantastic example by coming back from his injury surprisingly early to try and give the Commanders a boost down the stretch. That will have gone down well with the coaches and front office behind the scenes.

But the first option is probably the most likely. Allen has been a great player for this franchise during some of its darkest moments and it would be harsh to cut him now times are finally changing in Washington, but that is the nature of the business unfortunately. Saving that much money on the cap is always going to be hard to pass up, even when you have tons of cap space. With Newton drafted highly in the second round last year, the team will be expecting him to take a big leap forward next season and his best role would be in Allen’s spot. So the natural replacement is already in the building.

There’s also a free agent with strong links to Washington that could be of interest as a replacement for Allen. Cowboys defensive lineman Osa Odighizuwa was drafted when Commanders head coach Dan Quinn was the Cowboys defensive coordinator back in 2021. Quinn has already raided his former team for the likes of Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler, so it’s natural to think Odighizuwa could be another target for Quinn, especially if an opening in the defensive line rotation is created by releasing Allen.

While the decision on Allen and Payne is the main focus of this group, there are other talking points worth going over here. Johnny Newton didn’t have the rookie season I anticipated him having and I think the team would have expected more from him. Granted, he did start the year injured and missed a lot of time during the offseason and training camp because of his foot injuries discovered during the draft process. That obviously slowed him down significantly at the start of the year while he was getting up to speed. But he did start to show flashes after his first few games with extended snaps, where you could see the traits that saw him so highly rated in the draft.

Down the stretch though, those flashes never developed into more consistent play. That’s not to say he was bad. There were still lots of good moments that he can build from. His quickness and burst is a major threat against interior offensive lineman as a pass rusher, but he was a little too reliant on that quickness and his favored side swipe/scissors move. He needs to develop a much more diverse set of moves to help him win more consistently as a rusher, but I don’t doubt that will come if he is able to stay healthy and have a full offseason to work on those things.

The bigger concern for Newton is his run defense. That quickness can be an asset in the run game when the line is stunting and trying to cause disruption, which the Commanders do like to do a fair bit of. Philosophically, this defense prefers to try and cause disruption up front in hopes of creating a negative play on first down which can get the offense behind the chains and let the defense go into attack mode. They’re often willing to sacrifice a few first downs from run stunts that don’t hit right in order to get that negative play.

We saw Newton do that well in the middle of the season. The Commanders found a nice role for him as a nose tackle, lining head up over the center in a three-man front with Payne and Allen either side of him. You wouldn’t necessarily think of a smaller, quicker tackle like Newton suiting playing a nose tackle spot that is typically reserved for big, 350 run stuffer, but Newton played the role differently. They put him there to enable him to use his quickness against opposing centers that weren’t athletic enough to keep up with him. The Bears game was a great example of that.

However, down the stretch, teams recognized Washington’s plan with Newton inside and decided to test his ability to handle the ball being run right at him. With Newton in the middle, most opposing offenses would run Duo schemes or Power/Counter schemes where they would look to get a double team on him. Newton really struggled against double teams this year. Payne and Allen have always been big and stout enough to fight off double teams and hold their gaps while giving up minimal ground, but Newton would routinely get driven five yards off the ball, which is obviously a big problem for the run defense.

It will be interesting to see if the Commanders try to get Newton to bulk up a bit this offseason. He’s listed at 295 pounds on the team’s official website. There have been plenty of defensive tackles that have been successful at that weight, especially guys with the quickness that Newton has. But I do wonder if they might see if they can push him over the other side of that 300 pound mark with a good offseason plan just to give him a bit more stoutness without losing much or any of that quickness.

Sheldon Day is a free agent that I think they’d probably like to have back again. He played some really good football for the Commanders this season, particularly in the middle of the year. There were a few games where he was their best defensive lineman and he was rightly praised by both Quinn and Whitt multiple times this season. So it would make sense to bring him back at the very least throughout training camp to fill out the rotation and give them a veteran option they know they can rely on. He will be 31 by the start of next season, so he’s not a long term option for them, but he’s been an NFL journeyman throughout his career, bouncing around from team to team, so he’s unlikely to cost a huge amount to bring back for another season and if a younger player ends up beating him out during training camp, so be it.

The level of need here is a hard one to say because the Allen decision plays so much into it. If Allen is retained and they opt to run it back with Allen, Payne and Newton again, then I think the need level is quite low, with the team only really requiring some lesser tier veterans to fill out the rotation, much like Day did this year. But if the team decides to move on from Allen, which I think would be the most likely option at this point, then the need becomes a bit higher. Allen might not have played to his typical standard this year, but if he’s not back he does leave a big hole in that defensive line. Newton has the potential to fill some of that pass rushing void, but he still needs to develop some variety and consistency. It’s unlikely that Payne will step up and suddenly become a great pass rusher at this point in the year. So if Allen leaves as I’m anticipating, then I’m setting the need level to a medium.

Level of need: Medium

Defensive End

On the roster: Dorance Armstrong, Javontae Jean-Baptiste

Free agents: Dante Fowler, Clelin Ferrell, Jalyn Holmes

Analysis: This was quite an intriguing group to watch this season. Dorance Armstrong was the highest profile player of the group having received a significant free agent contract to follow Quinn and Whitt from Dallas. He was never going to be an elite edge rusher that put up 15 sacks in a season, that has never been his game. But he did play his role to a level higher than he did in Dallas. With the Cowboys, Armstrong was always the second or third rushing option. Micah Parsons was obviously the top rusher there and then DeMarcus Lawrence was the next rusher to be featured. Armstrong often had to move around and rush from different spots, often doing the dirty work on stunts to help free up the two bigger names.

In Washington, he didn’t have a Parsons or Lawrence to work with, so he became more of a focal point. Despite that, he still maintained a good pressure rate and took a step forward from the player he was last year. He was versatile, lining up on both sides and often shifting inside to defensive tackle on some of the Commanders more expansive rush packages. He also dropped into coverage off the edge a fair few times as part of the Commanders sim pressure packages. So he brought a lot to the table and proved worthy of his contract, in my opinion.

The spot opposite Armstrong, however, was inconsistent and needs some work. Clelin Ferrell was signed to be a strong run defender on the edge on first and second down before Dante Fowler could come in on third down or linebacker Frankie Luvu could shift down to the edge in obvious pass rushing situations. Ferrell had a tough start to the year battling through some injuries and did have some solid games against the run, but he wasn’t consistent enough. With only two players under contract for next season at defensive end, the Commanders could bring Ferrell back for another shot on a cheap deal, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them move on and try another veteran for the same type of role.

Dante Fowler ended up taking over from Ferrell during his time on the sidelines and surprisingly had one of the best years of his career. He put up over 10 sacks for only the second time in his career, the first time was when he played alongside Aaron Donald with the Rams. He didn’t have the same interior help this year but learned to finish better than he has throughout most of his career, which is something Dan Quinn attributed to the help of Ryan Kerrigan.

Fowler was a little hit and miss in the run game. There was definitely more physicality on the edge from a guy that is known as a pass rush specialist, so the willingness was there. It showed up a lot too, with Fowler often squeezing down the line when he saw pullers coming his way and he would blow them up routinely. But as we saw on the first play of the loss to the Eagles in the playoffs, he could also get a bit lost in the run game and lose contain, which led to some big runs.

I would imagine the Commanders would be doing their best to retain Fowler after the season he just had. He ranked eighth overall in ESPNs Pass Rush Win Rate statistic, with numbers similar to some of the best rushers in the league. His average time to pressure stat was also in the elite territory. That type of production is hard to replace, so the Commanders will probably want him back. But he is also the wrong side of 30 and thus isn’t a long term solution at the position. I’m not sure how much the Commanders could rely on him replicating those numbers next season given this appears to be somewhat of an outlier season in his career, but for Washington it’s certainly worth bringing him back to see if he can back it up with another strong year.

Javontae Jean-Baptiste was a seventh round pick that I wasn’t sure would make the team. He had the raw ingredients to be an interesting developmental player coming out of the draft, with long arms, good strength and a competitive motor. But he far surpassed those expectations. He wasn’t an outstanding player, but he did flash a lot more than most seventh rounders do. His length and power helped him set a pretty solid edge most of the time, but he did get worked into a few rookie mistakes on the edge too. I’m not sure he’ll ever become a top tier pass rusher but he played a pretty solid part in the defensive end rotation this year and the Commanders won’t feel uncomfortable with him being the last defensive end on the roster as part of the rotation next season too.

So there are some nice pieces here, especially if Fowler is resigned and able to replicate what he did this season. With those pieces, combined with the willingness to blitz from Quinn and Whitt, the Commanders could generate a solid pass rush again next year without adding too much to the roster. But the team is lacking a real presence on the edge to give them that headline act that they can rely on to help get pressure with just four when they want to play more coverage. In Dallas, Quinn and Whitt had Parsons as that headline act and filled in the group around him with pieces like Armstrong and Fowler, which led to the Cowboys having one of the best pass rush units in the league. They could pressure with just four when needed, but when Quinn and Whitt added on to the rush with more blitzes, they’d generate outstanding matchups for Parsons to take advantage of, which he typically did.

Finding that star pass rusher is much easier said than done. They don’t have a top 10 draft pick to find one this year and the edge rusher market in free agency is always very competitive. Eagles edge rusher Josh Sweat could be a potential free agent option to try and steal from a division rival, but I do wonder if the trade market might be more appealing. Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby has long been linked with a move away from Vegas while Myles Garrett’s situation with the Browns isn’t certain. There’s perhaps a universe that exists where Micah Parsons doesn’t get the contract he’s after in Dallas and tries to force a trade to reunite with Dan Quinn, who he always speaks highly of. I’d say all three options are pretty unlikely, but I’m sure the Commanders would have some interest if one of those three were to suddenly become available via trade. Giving up the 29th overall pick for a top pass rusher is a lot easier to swallow than giving up a top 10 pick.

Level of need: High

Linebacker