Rookie progress report: Luke McCaffrey

Breaking down where WR Luke McCaffrey stands over halfway into his rookie season

One of the players I’ve been asked most frequently about this season is rookie receiver Luke McCaffrey. His stat line has been pretty underwhelming, having only caught 13 passes for 134 yards and no touchdowns. But those stats don’t tell anywhere near the full story of McCaffrey’s season to date. He’s been one of the unluckiest receivers I’ve seen in Washington in recent years. There are various charts and tracking stats that list McCaffrey near the top of the NFL for separation and while it’s not quite the case the McCaffrey is just constantly wide open, the Commanders have missed on multiple opportunities to get him the ball when he has been open for a variety of reasons. 

So today I thought I would do a rookie progress report, checking in on where McCaffrey stands just over half way into his rookie season. Let’s start with some of the catches he has made. 

Here against the Cardinals, McCaffrey lines up as the point man in a bunch set to the right. The Commanders run a Bow concept, which consists of a basic cross over the middle, a flat route and then a third receiver spotting up in between the other two. McCaffrey runs the basic cross here and the idea is to try and create a high-low read, where if a zone defender attaches to the spot route underneath, McCaffrey can break open behind him but if the defender sinks back to McCaffrey, the spot route will be open. However, the Cardinals play man coverage rather than zone, with McCaffrey matched up on safety Jalen Thompson. 

McCaffrey runs a nice route, closing up the gap between himself and the defender quickly and then selling a little fake to the outside before making his cut. He really makes a point of stepping on the defenders toes as he gets close, which helps him sell the fake to the outside even more. The defender reacts to that fake, which enables McCaffrey to separate as he breaks over the middle. Jayden Daniels initially works to his left off the snap but comes back to the right side when he doesn’t like what he sees. McCaffrey’s route is the first one that comes into his vision as he progresses to the right side and he immediately pulls the trigger. From the end zone replay angle, we can see McCaffrey does a nice job reaching out and making a good hands catch away from his body. It’s a sneaky tough catch because McCaffrey is at full extension while running at full speed and the ball is slightly high with a lot of heat on it. But he secures the pass and picks up the first down before the safety makes the tackle. 

Working across the middle of the field can be daunting for some receivers because you never quite know where that safety is that could land a big hit. But McCaffrey has shown this year he has no fear in being targeted over the middle and will happily make a catch in traffic. 

On this play down in the red zone, the Commanders run a quick seam concept. Tight end Zach Ertz aligns inside McCaffrey in the slot and he runs a crossing route designed to grab the attention of any defender inside and vacate space behind him for McCaffrey. McCaffrey runs the quick seam route, getting up the field for a few steps before breaking inside into the space vacated by Ertz. The Buccaneers play man coverage, so this concept isn’t quite as effective. The slot corner breaks on McCaffrey’s route as he comes inside, while the deep safety and even the defender covering Ertz peel off to try and swarm around McCaffrey. Despite that, McCaffrey makes the grab, secures the pass and turns up the field looking to try and get into the end zone. Unfortunately he was stopped just marginally short, but he was willing to put his body on the line to try and get there. 

McCaffrey has also stepped up and made some catches in key situations when given the opportunity.