NFL Draft Profile: QB Trey Lance
Could Trey Lance be Washington’s franchise quarterback of the future?
To kick off draft week, I thought I’d take a look at the quarterback most linked with Washington in a potential trade up scenario. Trey Lance could potentially be in play with the 49ers at the third overall pick, but if he slides into the later part of the top 10 picks, reports from the likes of Michael Lombardi of The Athletic suggest Washington will trade up for him.
Lance is a tough evaluation because he only started one full season in college and that was in 2019. He was only able to play one game in 2020 due to Covid, which was his worst game in his college career, though the team still won. Lance also played for a smaller school in North Dakota State, where the competition was nowhere near the level that the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields or Mac Jones faced.
Individually, those things can be looked past. Obviously, the team would like to see how a prospect plays against the top competition to see how they hold up against the players most comparable to the level of talent in the NFL. However, in recent years we’ve seen quarterbacks from smaller schools have success in the NFL. Carson Wentz was drafted second overall by the Eagles coming out of the same school as Lance, for example. The inexperience is concerning, but Cam Newton had a similar level of on-field experience coming out of college. Newton actually attempted less passes, 292, in his college career than Lance, who threw 318 passes. In fact, Lance and Newton’s college stats are eerily similar.
But while those things can be looked past individually, they are all a component to the evaluation on Lance. It makes it a tough evaluation and a risky pick to make, but watch the film and you’ll see why some team is going to be willing to take that risk with a first-round pick on Thursday night.
The first thing that stood out to me when watching Lance was his command of the offense. This film is from 2019, when Lance himself was just 19, yet he plays with maturity and leadership beyond his years. This play is a great example of that. At first, North Dakota aligns in a basic formation and the defense responds with a basic look of its own. However, just before the ball is snapped, the defense suddenly shifts with multiple defenders charging up to the line of scrimmage as part of a big blitz. Lance doesn’t panic, he calmly stands up and communicates a new call to the offense. Either he changes the protection to ensure the offense can pick up the extra rushers, or he changes the play, perhaps both.
Either way, the result of Lance’s communication is that when he goes to snap the ball, the blitz from the defense is picked up while the tight end to the left of the formation runs wide open. Lance steps up in the pocket to avoid pressure off the right side and finds the tight end for a first down and a big gain.
That type of command of the offense shows great understanding of the system, but also outstanding confidence to go and make that call at 19 years-old without any help from the sideline. That’s NFL level quarterbacking. It doesn’t stop at command either. Lance does a great job finding holes on coverage, especially against pressure.
On this play, Lance has a slot fade combination to his left with a slant, pivot and wheel to his right. The defense brings a safety blitz from that right side, but try to disguise it with a blitz look from the other side. The safety to the left side of the field walks down over the slot receiver, a few yards behind the defender already over the slot receiver. That is typically an indication that a slot blitz is likely, with the safety in position to cover over the top.
Off the snap, Lance looks to that side, but spots both defenders staying over the top of the slot fade. Lance then comes back to his right, where he spots the safety blitzing. He knows the safety is vacating the middle of the field, and has a slant running in behind it. He steps up in the pocket to avoid the edge rush and then draws the safety in to buy time for his receiver to break open behind it. In the face of pressure, Lance waits until the last moment to deliver his throw over the top of the blitzing safety and hit his receiver for a first down.
It’s a play that shows great processing from Lance, understanding multiple parts of the defense and where the hole in the coverage will be. It also shows great toughness to stand in there and deliver the throw when he knows a blitzing safety is closing in on him. It’s another excellent play that shows Lance has huge upside as a passer.
Another part of Lance’s game that stands out is his athleticism. At 6-foot-4, 224 pounds, Lance has outstanding athletic ability. He’s not dissimilar to Andrew Luck in terms of his frame coming out of college, and Lance might be an even better athlete. This shows up in his game constantly. He’s excellent at being able to rollout on bootleg fakes.
This is one of the best concepts in football. It’s a play-action bootleg designed to look like a run to the left before the quarterback rolls out to the right. Typically this play would see the quarterback hit a tight end or fullback in the flat, but on this occasion, the offense leaks a tight end out on the other side of the field, faking a block before working vertically. Lance takes the snap and executes the fake before rolling out to his right seamlessly. He then effortlessly pulls up and delivers a nice throw to his tight end in the end zone for a touchdown.
That might seem like a simple play because Lance made it look so easy, but it’s not. The way Lance was able to stop his momentum, set his feet and deliver the throw so smoothly is not easy at all, but he’s such a good athlete he made it look easy. Watch Kyle Trask try to complete the same play and you might get some idea of how difficult that really is.
That athleticism allows Lance to be part of the run game too. The read-option and other quarterback-related run schemes are a huge part of the NFL now and only becoming more so. They make it very hard for the defense to stop the run because it evens up the numbers game, but also puts the defense in a bind when trying to defend the pass. It means typically passing situations still offer some threat of run that the defense has to account for too.
On this play, North Dakota State spread out the defense, working out of an empty set with all five eligible receivers split outside and Lance left alone in the backfield. For most teams, this would mean it’s obviously a passing play, but that’s not the case with Lance. With the defense spread out, there’s just five defenders in the box against five blockers. With Lance’s athleticism, North Dakota State calls a quarterback power play, pulling the left guard to the right side of the line to kick out the defensive end and create a hole for Lance.
Lance shows off his athleticism, bursting through the hole and showing good contact balance as he bounces off a tackle. He then speeds down field and runs away from the defense on his way to a 36-yard touchdown run, which was called back due to a penalty. But the example of what his running ability can add to an offense is clear to see.
However, just because Lance has the athleticism to run, don’t fall into the trap of labelling him a running quarterback. He used his athletic ability as the offense asked him to, but when possible, Lance’s first instinct was to throw. Even when under pressure, Lance attempted to extend plays and look to throw rather than just take off running. Sometimes that enabled Lance to pull defenders out of position only to throw over them.
Here, North Dakota State calls a sail concept, with the outside receiver running a clearing route while the slot receiver runs the sail route into the vacated space. The defense drops into a zone coverage, taking away the sail route Lance wants to throw. He spots a lane to step up in the pocket and he takes it, rolling out to his right. But instead of taking off running with nothing open, he rolls out and baits the outside corner to step up and commit to his run. That opens up the sail route behind that cornerback, which Lance then throws and completes for a first down.
Lance is clearly a very talented quarterback with a lot of upside. However, there are some issues with his game too. He has some mechanical issues that he needs to work on, his footwork needs cleaning up and his release is slightly elongated. To his credit, those mechanics did appear to be improved at his pro day. However, he’ll need to stay on top of that throughout his career, because they can cause him problems with accuracy and placement
On this third down play, Lance looks to hit a quick out to his slot receiver to the left. The receiver beats the slot defender and the safety maintains his inside position, so if Lance can hit his receiver in stride, the receiver has the chance to catch the ball and turn up the sideline for a first down and potentially a lot more. However, the placement on the throw from Lance is poor. He throws behind the receiver, forcing him to adjust his body in air to come back for the ball. This then allows the trailing defenders to make up ground and secure the tackle. The receiver did extremely well to extend the ball beyond the first down marker to convert, but it should have been a lot more than that and Lance’s placement took yards off the play.
On top of his mechanics, Lance needs to be a little more decisive and anticipatory. At times he can be caught waiting to see a receiver break open rather than anticipating the route coming open. That can make him late on some throws.
Here, Lance has a simple double stick concept to his right. Both inside receivers run stick routes while the outside receiver runs a clearing vertical route. As Lance secures the snap, he should see the slot defender running outside with the outside stick route, which Lance should then know leaves the inside stick route wide open. But instead of instantly pulling the trigger, Lance waits for his receiver to come out of his break and sit his route down before beginning his throwing motion.
Lance still manages to complete the pass, but in the time taken waiting for the receiver to come out of his break, Lance allows the safety to make up ground. The safety charges down and arrives at the receiver just after the ball, landing a big hit that could have knocked the ball out. Had Lance anticipated the throw better, his receiver might have had a chance to turn and avoid the hit, or at least prepare and protect both himself and the ball from the hit.
Overall, Lance is clearly a very talented quarterback with a ton of upside. The command of the offense at such a young age is hugely appealing, as is the athleticism that adds another dimension to the offense. But there are plenty of risks with him too. The inexperience and competition level have to be factored in, so too does the mechanical issues. He’s still raw, as many players and people in general are at his age. But in terms of traits, he has just about everything teams look for in a quarterback.
Very nice analysis with positives and negatives. Even if Lance is not available to Washington, there seems to be several day 2 QB's with potential. I keep going back to the fact that Tom Brady was a 6th round pick.
Mark solid analysis as usual. I have seen him play a few times and also thought that he did not play with a lot of anticipation. He has all the talent in the world and very well could have a solid pro career. He will need to learn this to be successful