Free Agent Profile: WR Curtis Samuel

The Panthers' WR has plenty of links to Washington, but is he the right fit?

A name that will likely be linked to Washington a lot  in the build up to free agency is wide receiver Curtis Samuel. The links to be made are obvious, Washington needs more playmakers at wide receiver and Samuel has spent the first four years of his professional career in Carolina with the Panthers. He was drafted by Marty Hurney, who was recently hired by Washington as the team’s new Executive Vice President of Football/Player Personnel and played under Head Coach Ron Rivera for the first three years of his career. Scott Turner, Washington’s Offensive Coordinator, was on the offensive staff in Carolina working under his dad Norv Turner for both 2018 and 2019, Samuel’s second and third years in Carolina. 

Clearly then, there’s plenty of easy dots to connect. Samuel is a talented receiver with the ability to create explosive plays, Washington needs a receiver and both sides know each other well. But just because the dots can be connected, does that mean they should be? While Washington does need a receiver, does Samuel fill the profile of receiver they need?

Samuel’s skillset

Samuel isn’t a traditional receiver. He played more as a running back in college that also showed some receiver skills. He’s a hybrid player that can line up at receiver one snap and shift to running back on the next. Those are the types of players that coaches look to scheme up different ways to get the ball in their hands and let their natural playmaking ability take over. Things like jet sweeps, reverses, end arounds, screens, shallow crossing routes are just some of the ways coaches, Norv and Scott Turner included, look to use to get the ball in Samuel’s hands quickly and let him showcase his explosiveness.

Misdirection plays have become a key element of the modern NFL offense. Many running plays along with play-action passes will make use of a receiver running a jet sweep fake against the flow of the run to cause the defenders on the back side of the run an issue with their read: do they play their natural gap or peel off to cover the jet sweep? This is made most effective with a player like Samuel.

Here we see three different examples of Samuel being used on misdirection plays. The first is a jet sweep carry against the Broncos. Samuel aligns in a stacked set to the left of the formation and just before the ball is snapped, he’s sent in motion across the formation. As he approaches the left tackle, the ball is snapped and quickly handed off to him. Denver’s defenders aren’t able to stay with Samuel, who is an explosive athlete. He gets the edge and turns up the sideline, picking up 10 yards and a first down before being forced out of bounds. The second play is a similar jet sweep, but against the Chiefs in the red zone. Samuel aligns as the inside receiver in a tight bunch set to the left and the Panthers use the running back as an extra blocker out in front for Samuel. The design works perfectly, with the back sealing the edge and allowing Samuel the space to turn his run up the sideline and into the end zone for the touchdown.

The third play of the clip is a reverse. The Panthers hand the ball off to the running back on a run to the left, but as the ball is snapped, Samuel works back against the flow of the play. The ball is pitched to Samuel who takes the ball in the opposite direction, causing the defense to stop and change direction. Samuel is once again able to pick up a first down on the play. 

These types of plays are nice change ups and good ways to pick up some nice chunk plays on the ground while also forcing the defense to be able to account for the potential of Samuel when the offense fakes those hand-offs to him, which can open things up on the front side of the run for the running back.

Samuel’s history as a running back means he’s also perfectly comfortable lining up in the backfield and even taking hand-offs as part of the core running game. This adds even more flexibility to the offense and allows the offensive coordinator to get creative with how he uses such a skillset

Here we can see a package of plays with Samuel aligning in the backfield. On the first play, Samuel lines up as the running back in the dot and runs a simple outside zone scheme. He uses his athleticism to bounce the run outside and then makes an incredibly sharp cut to beat cornerback Ronald Darby coming up to secure the edge. Samuel then bursts down the sideline and runs through a tackle attempt from safety Jeremy Reaves before Kam Curl is able to catch up and bring him down. 

The second play shows Samuel in the backfield along with running back Christian McCaffrey. With both some comfortable playing as running backs or receivers, the defense doesn’t know who could run a route and who might get the hand-off. Just before the ball is snapped, McCaffrey is sent in motion behind the quarterback towards the flat. The ball is then snapped and the quarterback can read the defense before deciding to either pass to McCaffrey in the flat or hand the ball off to Samuel. The defense rushes out to cover McCaffrey, leaving them short up front to defend the run and the ball is handed off to Samuel. 

Samuel can also run routes from the backfield. On the third play, he aligns on the backfield, replacing the running back, but runs up the seam as part of a four verticals concept. It’s an increasingly popular variation of four verticals, as the back can often be overlooked on the assumption he’ll stay in to protect or spot up underneath as a checkdown option. That’s precisely what happens on this play as he’s left free to run up the seam and pick up a first down.

What does Washington need at receiver?

While Samuel is clearly a good player with a lot to offer, his fit with Washington might not be as obvious as it appears on the surface. Under Rivera and Turner, Samuel spent most of his time as the Z receiver, but Turner made an effort to adjust his offense and the role of that position to suit Samuel’s skillset. It’s a skillset Turner clearly values, given the players Washington targeted last offseason. 

The team drafted Antonio Gibson, a receiver in college that Turner is developing into a running back, in the third round last season. Washington also signed J.D. McKissic, another positionless player that played both running back and wide receiver in college, as a free agent last offseason. Steven Sims Jr. is another player in that mold, though he’s more suited to being a slot receiver with the occasional hand-off on jet sweeps and such. While Samuel could be seen as an upgrade over some or perhaps all of those three, he would prove significantly more costly for a role that Washington already has three players for.

Samuel is currently projected by salary cap site Spotrac to earn a four-year deal worth close to $50 million. That’s a big contract, which his talent merits, but considering Washington’s trio of Gibson, McKissic and Sims will count for a total of $3.6 million against the cap in 2021, it might not be the wisest of investments for Washington to make. Washington already has plenty of players to fill the role that Samuel excels at, and might be better off looking for a more traditional outside receiver.

Now, Samuel played outside under Turner in Carolina and some could potentially see him as a fit there with the added bonus of versatility. However, he had some issues playing the traditional Z position.

First and foremost, Samuel had some issues with dropped catches. Receivers do drop passes from time to time, but it happened too often with Samuel. In 2019 in particular, Samuel dropped catches he shouldn’t have issues with and looked unsure of himself with some catches he did make.

Here are some examples of Samuel dropping passes in 2019 under Rivera and Turner. The first play is an RPO (run-pass option) with Samuel running a slant as the pass option. The safety in the box bites up on the run, telling the quarterback to pull the ball and throw the slant, but Samuel drops the pass. The second play comes from the same game against the Saints. Samuel runs a deep hook off of a play-action fake, but quarterback Kyle Allen gets forced out of the pocket and scrambles to his right. Samuel does a nice job finding space and making himself available to Allen, but sees the ball go through his hands and fall incomplete. On the third play, Samuel runs the sail route on the sail concept. He’s wide open near the sideline and Allen throws a solid pass, but Samuel again drops the ball. With the fourth and final play of the clip, Samuel runs an out route and breaks open near the sideline, but drops the pass as he attempts to keep his feet in bounds.

Obviously drops can’t afford to happen frequently for a receiver and perhaps Samuel has improved in this regard. In 2019, Samuel had just 54 catches on 104 targets. Obviously, not all of those non-catches are drops, a lot would have been wayward throws or broken up passes. But the rate of completions to Samuel in Rivera and Turner’s final season in Carolina is unlikely to have left a strong impression. That said, he did improve in 2020, catching 77 passes out of 97 targets, which is a far better completion rate.

Another issue Samuel had under Rivera and Turner was tracking the deep ball. When coaches and scouts refer to “ball skills” fans often assume that means having good hands and being able to make tough contested catches. However, an overlooked aspect of ball skills is the ability to track the ball in the air, particularly down the field. There’s no point in a receiver having extreme speed if he can’t locate the ball in the air and adjust his path to the trajectory of the throw. Samuel struggled in this regard, which is a big aspect of playing the Z receiver spot in Turner’s offense.

Here are some examples of Samuel struggling to track the ball down the field whilst playing for Rivera and Turner in 2019. The first play comes from 2019. Samuel aligns to the left of the formation and runs a deep post. With the defense in Cover-3, the corner takes outside leverage with the knowledge that the free safety should be in the middle of the field to help. However, the safety cheats to the other side of the field, opening up the post route for Samuel. The throw from quarterback Kyle Allen is perhaps a little too far infield, he should probably be aiming for the hashmarks and the ball lands in between them instead. However, the ball is thrown as Samuel cuts inside. He has plenty of time to locate the ball and adjust his path to the trajectory of the throw, but continues on his original path until his last few steps, when he realises the ball is a little more inside than he initially anticipated. This isn’t to excuse a poor throw, but better tracking might have led to a catch.

The second play is a simple go route down the sideline. He has a great release off the line and does well to adjust his route back inside after his release to give his quarterback as much room to work with as possible. However, with the ball in the air, Samuel fails to adjust back outside to match the throw. The end zone replay angle shows how the ball bounces a yard or two outside of Samuel’s path. The third play is a similar situation, where he runs down the sideline but the corner plays with outside leverage. Samuel again struggles to track the ball and is late to adjust his route back outside, which results in him colliding with the cornerback and falling over. 

In the final example, Samuel runs another deep post, this time against Washington. The scheme works perfectly, with the safety taking the bait underneath and vacating the middle of the field. Again, the quarterback should deliver a better throw towards the hashmarks, but Samuel struggles to track and adjust his path to the trajectory of the ball. His initial angle is set towards the hashmarks, but he leaves the adjustment too late and can’t make the play on the ball.

These two issues could have left poor impressions on the staff that now runs the show in Washington. While Samuel was productive under that regime in Carolina, he had his best season as a pro in 2020, when the staff left for Washington. In 29 games under Rivera and the Turner’s, Samuel caught 93 passes for 1121 yards and 11 touchdowns, along with 27 carries for 214 yards and three touchdowns. In 2020, his first without Rivera and his staff in Carolina, Samuel caught 77 passes for 851 yards and three touchdowns along with 41 carries for 200 yards and two touchdowns in just 15 games 

Improvements

Since Rivera left Carolina and took Scott Turner with him, Samuel saw his production jump. The Panthers used him more in the slot, which suited his skillset a little more as a receiver, while still being used in similar ways with jet sweeps and other misdirection plays. He appeared to improve in some aspects too, like catching the ball more reliably and tracking throws down the field better, adjusting his path and body position when needed.

Here, Samuel aligns in the slot to the right and runs a deep post. He runs a nice route with a solid head fake outside before cutting inside towards the post. With the deep safety on the opposite side of the field playing shallow and the safety to Samuel’s side playing deep, the quarterback throws a pass that leads Samuel across the field away from the deeper safety and over the top of the shallow one. Samuel tracks the ball well and manages to run under it to complete the pass for a big gain.

That’s far better tracking that what Rivera and Turner saw from Samuel when they were in charge. Samuel’s body control to adjust to catches improved too.

This time we see Samuel lined up tight to the right of the formation. He runs a deep over route, designed to cross the field behind the linebackers and underneath the safeties. Samuel breaks off his route across the middle and sets his angle towards the sideline, but the throw from the quarterback is wayward. Samuel does extremely well to stop his momentum and adjust his body back towards the throw, making a fantastic diving catch for another big chunk play.

So perhaps there are signs of improvement that might encourage Washington to make a play for a player the front office and coaching staff should know well. However, I suspect that Washington may be content to stick with the much cheaper trio of Gibson, McKissic and Sims for the role Samuel would play, while spending the money saved on a more traditional receiver to work on the outside opposite Terry McLaurin. I think that would make for a more complete and balance set of weapons for Turner to make use of going forward.