Draft Profile: Michigan Quarterback J.J. McCarthy

Breaking down Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy to see what makes him one of the top QB prospects in this draft class

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is one of the more intriguing quarterback prospects in this draft class. He had great success at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh, leading the team to the College Football Playoff National Championship title this season, but played in an offense that was very much built on the run game. There were multiple times this year McCarthy had less than 15 passing attempts in a game, including a win over Penn State where he threw just eight passes, completing seven of them. 

McCarthy is also one of the youngest players in this draft, having only just turned 21 in January. So when evaluating him, you have to consider both his youth and lack of experience. With that in mind it’s easy to understand why he’s such a raw prospect that could use with some more experience, but the fundamental tools are all there. 

The first thing that stands out when watching McCarthy is his willingness to attack the middle of the field. A lot of college quarterbacks favor attacking outside the numbers because there’s less risk out there with less defenders to worry about. But in the NFL, teams look to attack the middle of the field because that’s where there is huge opportunity to pick up explosive gains after the catch. McCarthy shows zero fear in throwing the ball over the middle of the field.

As you can see in this clip, McCarthy loves to attack the middle of the field. If he sees even the smallest possible window over the middle, he’ll take his shot. Now that can get him in trouble sometimes, and I’ll certainly get to that later on, but for now I want to focus on the positives. The plays in this clip show just how good he can be when attacking the middle of the field. The first play is probably one of his best throws of the season with a tight end running over the middle as a linebacker tries to carry him up the seam. McCarthy makes the decision to throw the ball well before the tight end has cleared the linebacker, in fact his throwing motion begins before he’s even level with the linebacker, but he’s so confident in his receiver and his own ability to throw to a spot that he pulls the trigger anyway. His confidence is clearly well placed as he fits the ball perfectly to his tight end for a touchdown. 

The second play of the clip shows McCarthy finding a tight end again over the middle on third and six, placing the ball perfectly in his stride but unfortunately the tight end drops it. The third play of the clip is an incredible throw. The outside receiver runs a switch release with the slot receiver to get into the seam before breaking further inside on a skinny post. The defense rotates the safeties, starting with two deep but rotating to single high with a robber underneath. McCarthy also gets pressure in his face as he looks to make his throw, but despite that he’s able to deliver a fantastic pass layered over the top of the robber and hits his receiver in the chest before he gets to the deep safety, but unfortunately the ball was dropped again. 

The fourth play of the clip is another insane throw and one that he probably doesn’t get away with in the NFL. He again looks to hit a deep over route, this time against Ohio State. I’m not sure he saw the safety in position or not, but he made the throw anyway and got lucky the safety just turned his eyes towards the receiver instead of reading the throw. By turning his head, the safety loses track of the ball and McCarthy somehow manages to find a way to fit the ball into the tightest of windows between the safety and the trailing corner. The end zone angle is the best view of how insane this throw is. 

McCarthy isn’t just great at attacking the middle of the field, he’s also very happy to throw the ball in the seams. 

On the first play of this clip, Michigan has a receiver in a tight split to the right of the formation. Just before the ball is snapped, the tight end inside motions outside and loops around the receiver in a tight split. This allows the receiver to work up the seam while the tight end releases outside. As McCarthy drops back to pass, he notices the defense is in Cover-3, which is weak to seam routes. He spots the strong safety staying shallow while the outside corner keeps his width, leaving his receiver running free up the seam. McCarthy quickly pulls the trigger and hits his receiver up the seam for a big gain. 

The second play of the clip is a four verticals variation run from a three by one formation. With four verticals, quarterbacks are typically taught to read the safety rotation. If they play with two deep safeties, then the quarterback should work outside. If the defense has just one safety in the middle, then the quarterback should work the seams. Here, the defense has two deep safeties, but one stays in the seam while the other stays in the middle of the field. McCarthy reads this as a single deep safety look and so he works to the two inside seam routes. When he makes the throw, the slot corner is still on top of the slot receiver, but McCarthy notices a size advantage and trusts his guy to make a play. He deliberately puts the ball on his receiver to allow him to use his frame to box out the defender, which he does well as he completes the touchdown. 

By being so willing and able to attack the middle of the field, McCarthy is a huge threat for teams that like to major in play-action. Harbaugh built the Michigan offense on the foundation of running the ball, which enabled them to get into the play-action game with McCarthy. A good play-action team gives the second level defenders nightmares because they’re reading run constantly and stepping up to defend it, leaving a void behind them in the middle of the field, which as we’ve already seen, McCarthy is more than capable of taking attacking.